Wannan hoton yana bayani ne akan wani muhimmin abu a harkar trading da ake kira Market Structure (Tsarin Kasuwa). Yana nuna yadda kasuwa ke tafiya sama (Uptrend) da kuma yadda take faduwa (Downtrend), da kuma alamomin da suke nuna cewa yanayin kasuwar zai iya canzawa.

Bari mu fara da fassara da kuma sharhin kowace kalma da ka gani a hoton.

Sashe na 1: Fassara da Sharhin Kalmomin Cikin Hoton

1. BOS (Break of Structure)

• Ma'anarsa: A Hausa, zamu iya kiransa da "Karyewar Tsari". Wannan yana nufin kasuwa ta ci gaba da tafiya a kan hanyar da ta sa a gaba.

• Sharhi:

  • Idan Kasuwa na Tashi (Uptrend): Kasuwa tana yin sabon "high" (tudu) wanda ya fi na baya tsawo, sannan ta dan dawo kasa kadan ta yi "low" (kwari), sai kuma ta sake tashi ta karya tudun da ta yi a baya. Wannan karyewar da ta yi wa tudun da ya wuce shi ake kira BOS. Alama ce da ke nuna cewa masu saye (buyers) suna da karfi kuma kasuwar za ta ci gaba da tashi. A hoton, ka ga an yi BOS da yawa a lokacin da kasuwa ke hawa sama.

  • Idan Kasuwa na Faduwa (Downtrend): Kasuwa tana yin sabon "low" (kwari) wanda ya fi na baya zurfi, sannan ta dan tashi sama kadan ta yi "high", sai kuma ta sake faduwa ta karya kwarin da ta yi a baya. Wannan karyewar da ta yi wa kwarin da ya wuce shi ake kira BOS. Alama ce da ke nuna cewa masu sayarwa (sellers) ne ke da iko kuma kasuwar za ta ci gaba da faduwa.

A takaice, BOS yana tabbatar maka da cewa yanayin da kasuwa take ciki (trend) zai ci gaba.

2. CHOCH (Change of Character)

• Ma'anarsa: A Hausa, zamu iya kiransa da "Canjin Hali" ko "Canjin Dabi'a".

• Sharhi: Wannan ita ce alama ta FARKO da ke nuna cewa yanayin kasuwar (trend) na iya juyewa. Wato, idan tana tashi, za ta iya komawa faduwa, ko kuma idan tana faduwa, za ta iya komawa tashi.

  • Daga Faduwa zuwa Tashi: Idan kasuwa tana cikin faduwa (Downtrend), tana yin kwari bayan kwari (lower lows). Amma sai ta zo ta kasa yin wani sabon kwari da ya fi na baya zurfi, sai maimakon haka ta juya ta karya tudun karshe da ta yi kafin ta yi kwarin karshe (the last lower high). Wannan karyewar ita ce CHOCH. Yana nuna cewa karfin masu sayarwa (sellers) ya fara raguwa, kuma masu saye (buyers) sun fara shigowa kasuwar. A hoton, ka ga CHOCH na farko ya faru a kasa.

  • Daga Tashi zuwa Faduwa: Idan kasuwa tana cikin tashi (Uptrend), tana yin tudu bayan tudu (higher highs). Amma sai ta kasa yin wani sabon tudu da ya fi na baya tsawo, sai maimakon haka ta juya ta karya kwarin karshe da ta yi kafin ta yi tudun karshe (the last higher low). Wannan karyewar ita ce CHOCH. Yana nuna cewa karfin masu saye ya fara raguwa, kuma masu sayarwa sun fara karbe iko. A hoton, ka ga CHOCH na biyu ya faru a sama.

3. HTF SUPPLY (Higher Timeframe Supply)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan yana nufin "Wurin Sayarwa Mai Karfi na Babban Lokaci".

• Sharhi: Wannan wani wuri ne a can sama wanda idan farashi ya kai wurin, ana sa ran masu sayarwa da yawa za su shigo kasuwa su fara sayarwa, wanda hakan zai sa farashin ya fara faduwa. "Higher Timeframe" na nufin an gano wannan wurin ne a kan jadawalin (chart) na lokaci mai girma, kamar na awa 4, na yini daya (Daily), ko na mako (Weekly). Wuraren da aka gani a manyan lokuta sun fi karfi.

4. HTF DEMAND (Higher Timeframe Demand)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan yana nufin "Wurin Saye Mai Karfi na Babban Lokaci".

• Sharhi: Wannan wani wuri ne a can kasa wanda idan farashi ya kai wurin, ana sa ran masu saye da yawa za su shigo su fara saya, wanda hakan zai sa farashin ya fara tashi. Kamar yadda na fada a sama, shima ana gano shi ne a manyan jadawalin lokaci (Higher Timeframes) kuma yana da matukar karfi.

Sashe na 2: Sharhin Hoton Daki-daki (Daga Hagu zuwa Dama)

Yanzu bari na yi maka bayanin tafiyar da kasuwar ta yi a hoton mataki-mataki:

1. Farkon Tafiya (Kasuwa na Faduwa): A hannun hagu, kasuwa ta fara ne tana faduwa (Downtrend). Tana yin kwari (low), sai ta dan tashi sama kadan (lower high), sannan ta sake faduwa ta karya kwarin da ta yi a baya (bos). Ta ci gaba da haka, tana karye tsari zuwa kasa (bos, bos).

2. Kai wa Wuri Mai Muhimmanci: Kasuwar ta ci gaba da faduwa har sai da ta iso wani wuri mai karfi da ake kira HTF DEMAND ZONE. Wannan wuri ne da ake sa ran masu saye za su shigo.

3. Alamar Juyawa ta Farko (CHOCH): Da isarta wannan wurin, sai ta kasa yin sabon kwari da zai karya na baya. Maimakon haka, sai ta juya da karfi ta karya tudun karshe da ta yi (ch). Wannan shi ne Change of Character (CHOCH). Wannan ya nuna mana cewa "halin" kasuwar na iya canzawa daga faduwa zuwa tashi.

4. Fara Sabuwar Tafiya (Kasuwa na Tashi): Bayan CHOCH, kasuwar ta fara hawa sama (Uptrend). Tana yin tudu (high), ta dan dawo kasa (higher low), sannan ta karya tudun da ya gabata (bos). Ta ci gaba da yin haka (bos, bos), wanda hakan ke tabbatar mana da cewa yanzu kasuwar tana tashi.

5. Kai wa Wani Wuri Mai Muhimmanci: Kasuwar ta ci gaba da tashi har sai da ta iso wani wuri mai karfi a sama da ake kira HTF SUPPLY ZONE. Wannan wuri ne da ake sa ran masu sayarwa za su shigo.

6. Alamar Juyawa ta Biyu (CHOCH): Da isarta wannan wurin, sai ta kasa yin sabon tudu da zai karya na baya. Maimakon haka, sai ta juya da karfi ta fado kasa ta karya kwarin karshe da ta yi (ch). Wannan shi ne CHOCH na biyu. Wannan ya nuna mana cewa "halin" kasuwar na iya sake canzawa daga tashi zuwa faduwa.

7. Koma wa Faduwa: Bayan CHOCH na biyu, kasuwar ta ci gaba da faduwa, har ma ta yi bos zuwa kasa, wanda ke tabbatar da cewa yanzu an koma tafiyar faduwa (Downtrend).

Sashe na 3: Ka'idojin da Zaka Bi Wajen Shiga Kasuwa (Trading)

Yanzu da ka fahimci ma'anar komai, ga yadda zaka iya amfani da wannan ilimin wajen shiga kasuwa.

Idan Kana So Ka Yi Saye (Buy):

1. Neman Wuri: Jira farashi ya zo wani muhimmin wuri na Demand Zone (kamar yadda ya faru a hoton).

2. Jiran Tabbaci na Farko: Kada ka shiga saye kai tsaye! Ka jira har sai ka ga an yi CHOCH. Wato, sai farashi ya karya tudun karshe na baya a cikin tafiyar faduwar da yake yi. Wannan ita ce alama ta farko da ke nuna cewa kasuwar na son juyawa.

3. Neman Inda Zaka Shiga: Bayan an yi CHOCH, galibi farashi yakan dan dawo kasa kadan (pullback) zuwa wani karamin wuri (order block ko demand zone) kafin ya ci gaba da tashi. Wannan wurin da ya dawo shine wuri mafi kyau da zaka shiga saye (Buy).

4. Kafa Rariya (Stop Loss): Ka sanya Stop Loss dinka a karkashin kwarin karshe da aka yi kafin a yi CHOCH. Wannan zai kare ka idan kasuwar ba ta juya ba kamar yadda kake tsammani.

5. Sanya Inda Zaka Fita da Riba (Take Profit): Ka sanya Take Profit dinka a wani tudu na gaba ko wani Supply Zone.

Idan Kana So Ka Yi Sayarwa (Sell):

Anan ma zaka bi kishiyar abin da na fada a sama:

1. Neman Wuri: Jira farashi ya zo wani muhimmin wuri na Supply Zone.

2. Jiran Tabbaci na Farko: Ka jira har sai ka ga an yi CHOCH. Wato, sai farashi ya karya kwarin karshe na baya a cikin tafiyar tashin da yake yi.

3. Neman Inda Zaka Shiga: Bayan an yi CHOCH, jira farashi ya dan dawo sama kadan (pullback). Wannan wurin da ya dawo shine wuri mafi kyau da zaka shiga sayarwa (Sell).

4. Kafa Rariya (Stop Loss): Ka sanya Stop Loss dinka a saman tudun karshe da aka yi kafin a yi CHOCH.

5. Sanya Inda Zaka Fita da Riba (Take Profit): Ka sanya Take Profit dinka a wani kwari na gaba ko wani Demand Zone.

Kammalawa

• BOS (Break of Structure): Yana nuna CI GABA da tafiyar kasuwa.

• CHOCH (Change of Character): Yana nuna ALAMAR FARKO ta yiwuwar JUYAWAR tafiyar kasuwa.

Wannan shine cikakken bayani game da wannan hoton. Abu mafi muhimmanci shine ka bude jadawalin (chart) na gaske ka fara gwada ganin wadannan abubuwa da idonka. Da farko zai dan baka wahala, amma da ka ci gaba da dubawa, zasu zama maka kamar wasa.

Na'am, wannan wani hoto ne mai matukar muhimmanci wanda ya kara fayyace daya daga cikin abubuwan da muka tattauna a hoton farko. Wannan ya fi mayar da hankali kan yadda ake gane lokacin da kasuwa za ta juya daga faduwa zuwa tashi, wato "Bullish CHOCH".

Bari mu sake binsa daki-daki kamar yadda mukayi a baya.

Sashe na 1: Fassara da Sharhin Sababbin Kalmomi

Yawancin kalmomin an yi bayanin su a baya, amma ga wasu da aka kara da kuma karin haske a kansu.

1. Bullish CHOCH

• Ma'anarsa: "Canjin Hali" da ke nuna cewa kasuwa za ta fara TASHI (Bullish). Wannan shine ainihin abin da hoton yake magana a kai. Lokacin da ka ji an ce "Bullish," ana nufin kasuwa za ta yi sama.

2. Buy Side Liquidity

• Ma'anarsa: "Wurin da ododin saye suke a ajiye."

• Sharhi: A duniyar trading, musamman a tsarin Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ana kallon wasu wurare a matsayin "wuraren da kudi suke." "Buy Side Liquidity" galibi yana samuwa ne a saman wasu tudun-tudu (highs) da suka kusan zama daya. A wadannan wuraren, akwai stop-loss na mutanen da suka yi sayarwa (Sell), kuma stop-loss na sell shine Buy order. Haka kuma, akwai buy-stop orders na mutanen da suke jiran kasuwa ta karya wurin su shiga saye. Manyan 'yan kasuwa (Banks, Institutions) suna son su tura farashi zuwa wadannan wuraren domin su "kwashe" wadannan ododin. Saboda haka, idan ka ga an yi Bullish CHOCH, galibi wannan wurin na "Buy Side Liquidity" shi ne zai zama makoma (target) na gaba.

3. M15 DEMAND & M1 DEMAND

• Ma'anarsa: "Wurin Saye na Minti 15" da "Wurin Saye na Minti 1".

• Sharhi: Wannan yana nuna amfani da jadawalin lokuta daban-daban (Multi-Timeframe Analysis).

  • M15 DEMAND: Wannan shine babban wurin sayen da ka gano a jadawalin minti 15. Wuri ne mai karfi wanda kake sa ran farashi zai juya idan ya iso gareshi.

  • M1 DEMAND: Bayan farashi ya shigo cikin babban wurin nan na M15, sai ka koma karamin jadawali kamar na minti 1 domin ka nemo wani karamin wuri na musamman da zaka shiga kasuwar. Wannan yana baka damar samun shiga mai kyau da kuma karamar rariya (tighter stop loss). Kamar ka shiga babban gari (M15 DEMAND) sannan ka nemi ainihin gidan da zaka je (M1 DEMAND).

4. Alamar Dala ($)

• Ma'anarsa: Alamun Liquidity.

• Sharhi: A wannan hoton, an yi amfani da alamar dala ($) don nuna wuraren da "kudi" suke. Na saman yana nuna "Buy Side Liquidity" (kamar yadda muka tattauna), na kasan kuma yana nuna "Sell Side Liquidity" (wato ododin stop-loss na masu saye da sell-stop orders na masu sayarwa da ke ajiye a karkashin wasu kwaruruka). A wannan misalin, kasuwar ta fara kwashe kudin da ke kasa ($ na kasa) kafin ta juya da karfi zuwa sama.

Sashe na 2: Bayanin Hoton Mataki-bayan-Mataki

Ga yadda abubuwan suka faru a jere a cikin wannan hoton:

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Kasuwa tana cikin faduwa (Downtrend), tana yin kwaruruka da tudun-tudu da ke kasa da na baya (Lower Lows and Lower Highs).

2. Isa ga Babban Wuri: Farashi ya fado har ya shiga cikin babban yankin saye na minti 15 (M15 DEMAND). Wannan shine wurin da muke sa ran juyawa.

3. Aiwatar da CHOCH: A maimakon ta ci gaba da faduwa, sai kasuwar ta juya da karfi daga cikin M15 DEMAND zone din ta karya tudun karshe da ta yi a tafiyar tata ta faduwa. Wannan karyewar ita ce Bullish CHOCH. Wannan ita ce babbar alamar da muke jira, wacce ke cewa, "Masu saye sun fara karbar iko."

4. Gano Makoma (Target): Yanzu da an tabbatar da CHOCH, sai hankali ya koma kan Buy Side Liquidity da ke can sama. Wannan shine wurin da muke tsammanin farashi zai nufa.

5. Jiran Komowar Farashi (Pullback): Bayan an yi CHOCH, masu wayo basa tsalle su shiga kasuwa a take. Suna jira farashi ya dan dawo kasa kadan don su samu shiga mai kyau.

6. Shiga Kasuwa Daga Karamin Wuri: Farashin ya dawo kasa har ya shiga cikin karamin wurin saye na minti 1 (M1 DEMAND) wanda yake cikin babban yankin na M15. Wannan karamin yankin shine wuri mafi inganci don shiga saye (Buy). Anan ne zaka shiga kasuwar.

7. Tafiya zuwa Makoma: Daga wannan M1 Demand, ana sa ran farashi zai tashi da karfi ya nufi can sama inda "Buy Side Liquidity" take domin ya kwashe ta.

Sashe na 3: Tsarin Shiga Kasuwa (Practical Trading Plan)

Wannan tsari yana daya daga cikin ingantattun tsare-tsare na trading:

1. Mataki na 1 (Babban Lokaci - HTF): Bude jadawali na minti 15 (M15) ko na awa daya (H1) ka nemo wani wuri mai karfi na Demand Zone. Ka zana shi.

2. Mataki na 2 (Hakuri): Jira da hakuri har farashi ya shigo cikin wannan babban yankin da ka zana. Kada ka yi gaggawa.

3. Mataki na 3 (Karamin Lokaci - LTF): Da zaran farashi ya shigo, sai ka koma karamin jadawali kamar na minti 1 (M1) ko minti 5 (M5).

4. Mataki na 4 (Neman Tabbaci): A wannan karamin jadawalin, ka jira har sai ka ga an yi Bullish CHOCH. Wato, an karya karamin tudun karshe na baya.

5. Mataki na 5 (Neman Inda Zaka Shiga): Bayan an yi CHOCH, ka nemo karamin Demand Zone na karshe da ya jawo wannan karyewar (CHOCH). A hotonmu shine M1 DEMAND.

6. Mataki na 6 (Sanya Oda): Ka sanya odar ka ta Buy Limit a wannan karamin M1 Demand Zone. Wasu na shiga a farkon zone din, wasu a tsakiyar (50%), wasu a karshe.

7. Mataki na 7 (Sanya Rariya - Stop Loss): Ka sanya Stop Loss dinka a karkashin kwarin farko da aka yi a cikin babban M15 Demand Zone.

8. Mataki na 8 (Sanya Makomar Riba - Take Profit): Ka sanya Take Profit dinka a wurin da Buy Side Liquidity take (wato a saman tudun da ya gabata).

A takaice dai, wannan hoto yana koya maka yadda zaka hada babban lokaci (Higher Timeframe) da karamin lokaci (Lower Timeframe) don samun cikakkiyar damar shiga kasuwa mai inganci. Ka nemo inda kasuwa za ta juya a babban lokaci, sannan ka nemi ainihin alamar juyawar a karamin lokaci.

Madalla! Wannan hoton shine kishiyar wanda ka turo a baya. Idan wancan yana nuna maka yadda zaka gane kasuwa za ta tashi (Bullish CHOCH), wannan kuma yana nuna maka yadda zaka gane kasuwa za ta fadi. Wannan shi ake kira "BEARISH CHOCH".

Kamar yadda muka saba, ga bayani filla-filla don ka fahimta sosai.

Sashe na 1: Fassara da Sharhin Sababbin Kalmomi

1. BEARISH CHOCH

• Ma'anarsa: "Canjin Hali" da ke nuna cewa kasuwa za ta fara FADUWA (Bearish). Lokacin da ka ji an ce "Bearish," ana nufin kasuwa za ta yi kasa.

2. Sell Side Liquidity

• Ma'anarsa: "Wurin da ododin sayarwa suke a ajiye."

• Sharhi: Wannan shine kishiyar "Buy Side Liquidity". Ana samun "Sell Side Liquidity" ne a karkashin wasu kwaruruka (lows) da suka kusan zama daya. A wadannan wuraren, akwai stop-loss na mutanen da suka yi saye (Buy), kuma stop-loss na buy shine Sell order. Haka kuma, akwai sell-stop orders na mutanen da suke jiran kasuwa ta karya wurin su shiga sayarwa. Wannan wurin yana zama kamar maganadisu ga farashi idan kasuwar ta juya zuwa faduwa. Shine zai zama makoma (target) na gaba. A hoton, an nuna shi da layin da aka rubuta Sell side liquidity da kuma alamun $$$.

3. Supply Zone (M15 / M1)

• Ma'anarsa: "Wurin Sayarwa na Minti 15" da "Wurin Sayarwa na Minti 1".

• Sharhi: Wannan ma yana nuna amfani da jadawalin lokuta daban-daban (Multi-Timeframe Analysis).

  • M15 Supply Zone: Wannan shine babban wurin sayarwar da ka gano a jadawalin minti 15. Wuri ne mai karfi wanda kake sa ran farashi zai juya idan ya iso gareshi.

  • M1 Supply Zone: Bayan farashi ya shigo cikin babban wurin nan na M15, sai ka koma karamin jadawali kamar na minti 1 domin ka nemo wani karamin wuri na musamman da zaka shiga sayarwa. Kamar yadda na fada a baya, kamar ka shiga babban gari (M15 Supply) sannan ka nemi ainihin gidan da zaka je (M1 Supply) don aiwatar da cinikinka.

Sashe na 2: Bayanin Hoton Mataki-bayan-Mataki

Ga yadda abubuwan suka faru a jere a cikin wannan hoton:

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Kasuwa tana cikin tashi (Uptrend), tana yin tudun-tudu da kwaruruka da ke sama da na baya (Higher Highs and Higher Lows).

2. Isa ga Babban Wuri: Farashi ya tashi har ya shiga cikin babban yankin sayarwa na minti 15 (M15 Supply Zone). Wannan shine wurin da muke sa ran juyawa daga tashi zuwa faduwa.

3. Aiwatar da CHOCH: A maimakon ta ci gaba da tashi, sai kasuwar ta juya da karfi daga cikin M15 Supply zone din ta fado kasa ta karya kwarin karshe da ta yi a tafiyar tata ta tashi (the last higher low). Wannan karyewar ita ce Bearish CHOCH. Wannan ita ce babbar alamar da muke jira, wacce ke cewa, "Masu sayarwa sun fara karbar iko."

4. Gano Makoma (Target): Yanzu da an tabbatar da CHOCH, sai hankali ya koma kan Sell Side Liquidity da ke can kasa. Wannan shine wurin da muke tsammanin farashi zai nufa.

5. Jiran Komowar Farashi (Pullback): Bayan an yi CHOCH, ba'a shiga sayarwa (Sell) a take. Ana jira farashi ya dan dawo sama kadan don a samu shiga mai kyau a farashi mai tsada.

6. Shiga Kasuwa Daga Karamin Wuri: Farashin ya dawo sama har ya shiga cikin karamin wurin sayarwa na minti 1 (M1 Supply Zone) wanda yake cikin babban yankin na M15. Wannan karamin yankin shine wuri mafi inganci don shiga sayarwa (Sell). Anan ne zaka shiga kasuwar.

7. Tafiya zuwa Makoma: Daga wannan M1 Supply, ana sa ran farashi zai fado da karfi ya nufi can kasa inda "Sell Side Liquidity" take domin ya kwashe ta.

Sashe na 3: Tsarin Shiga Kasuwa (Practical Trading Plan)

Wannan shine ainihin tsarin da zaka bi idan kana son yin Sayarwa (Sell) da wannan dabarar:

1. Mataki na 1 (Babban Lokaci - HTF): Bude jadawali na minti 15 (M15) ko na awa daya (H1) ka nemo wani wuri mai karfi na Supply Zone. Ka zana shi.

2. Mataki na 2 (Hakuri): Jira da hakuri har farashi ya shigo cikin wannan babban yankin da ka zana.

3. Mataki na 3 (Karamin Lokaci - LTF): Da zaran farashi ya shigo, sai ka koma karamin jadawali kamar na minti 1 (M1) ko minti 5 (M5).

4. Mataki na 4 (Neman Tabbaci): A wannan karamin jadawalin, ka jira har sai ka ga an yi Bearish CHOCH. Wato, an karya kwarin karshe na baya (the last higher low).

5. Mataki na 5 (Neman Inda Zaka Shiga): Bayan an yi CHOCH, ka nemo karamin Supply Zone na karshe da ya jawo wannan karyewar (CHOCH). A hotonmu shine M1 Supply.

6. Mataki na 6 (Sanya Oda): Ka sanya odar ka ta Sell Limit a wannan karamin M1 Supply Zone.

7. Mataki na 7 (Sanya Rariya - Stop Loss): Ka sanya Stop Loss dinka a saman tudun karshe da aka yi a cikin babban M15 Supply Zone.

8. Mataki na 8 (Sanya Makomar Riba - Take Profit): Ka sanya Take Profit dinka a wurin da Sell Side Liquidity take (wato a karkashin kwarin da ya gabata).

Kammalawa

Yanzu ka ga hotuna guda uku wadanda suka hadu suka baka cikakken ilimi kan yadda kasuwa ke juyawa:

1. Hoto na Farko: Ya nuna maka bambancin BOS (ci gaba da tafiya) da CHOCH (alama ta farko ta juyawa).

2. Hoto na Biyu: Ya nuna maka yadda ake amfani da Bullish CHOCH don neman damar Saye (Buy).

3. Hoto na Uku: Ya nuna maka yadda ake amfani da Bearish CHOCH don neman damar Sayarwa (Sell).

Wannan ilimin yana da matukar karfi a harkar trading. Abu na gaba shine ka je ka bude jadawalin kasuwa (chart) ka fara gwada nemo wadannan tsare-tsaren da kanka. Hakan zai kara maka gogewa da kwarewa.

Lallai kuwa, wannan hoton ya kawo wani ilimi mai zurfi da kuma matukar muhimmanci a harkar trading. Wannan shine mataki na gaba bayan ka fahimci menene CHOCH. Tambayar anan itace, "Yaya zan bambance tsakanin CHOCH na gaskiya da wanda na tarko ne?"

Wannan hoton ya amsa maka wannan tambayar. Yawancin 'yan kasuwa, musamman sababbi, suna fada wa wannan tarkon. Bari mu fassara shi dalla-dalla don ka zama cikin wadanda suka san wannan sirrin.

Sashe na 1: Gabatarwa ga Manufar Hoton (Concept of the Image)

Babban aikin manyan 'yan kasuwa (Banks da Institutions) shine su nemo "liquidity" (kudi). Hanya mafi sauki da suke samun kudin shine ta hanyar jawo kananan 'yan kasuwa su shiga kasuwa a lokacin da bai dace ba, sannan su juya kasuwar ta ci kudin su (ta hanyar cinye stop-loss dinsu) kafin su tafi ainihin inda suka dosa.

Wannan hoton yana nuna yadda suke kafa wannan tarkon ta amfani da "CHOCH na Jabu" don su kwashe kudin mutane kafin su bayar da alamar "CHOCH na Gaskiya".

Sashe na 2: Bayanin Tafiyar Kasuwa Mataki-bayan-Mataki

Bari mu bi tafiyar kasuwar da ke hoton daga hagu zuwa dama:

1. Masu Sayarwa da Sauri (EARLY SELLERS): Kasuwar ta dan nuna alamar faduwa kadan. Sai wasu 'yan kasuwa da basu da hakuri (Early Sellers), wato "bera" a misalin hoton, suka yi gaggawar shiga sayarwa (Sell). Galibi suna sanya stop-loss dinsu a saman tudun da ya gabata.

2. Tarkon Farko (TRAP CHOCH): Kasuwar sai ta dan karya wani karamin kwari (minor low). Wannan shine CHOCH na Jabu (Trap CHOCH). An tsara shi ne don ya yaudari mutane su yarda cewa kasuwa ta juya za ta fadi. A wannan lokacin, Early Sellers da yawa zasu kara shiga sayarwa, suna tunanin sun kama kasuwa daga farko. Amma abin da basu sani ba, an kafa musu Tarko (Trap).

3. Kwasar Kudi (TRAP OR LIQUIDITY SWEEP): Maimakon kasuwa ta ci gaba da faduwa, sai ta juya da karfi ta tashi sama. Wannan tashin yana da manufa biyu:

   • Na Farko: Ya ci dukkan stop-loss na wadancan Early Sellers da suka yi saurin shiga. Wannan aikin shi ake kira Liquidity Sweep ko Stop Hunt (Farautar Stop-loss).

   • Na Biyu: Ya kai farashi zuwa ainihin babban wurin sayarwa na minti 15 (15min Supply Zone) wanda ke can sama. Wannan wuri ne mai karfi da ake sa ran ainihin juyawar za ta faru.

4. Alama ta Gaskiya (REAL CHOCH): BAYAN an kwashe kudin Early Sellers kuma BAYAN farashi ya taba babban 15min Supply Zone, sai kasuwar ta sake juyowa da gaske ta fado da karfi. Wannan karon, ta karya muhimmin kwari (major low) wanda aka kafa kafin a yi Liquidity Sweep. Wannan karyewar ita ce CHOCH na Gaskiya (REAL CHOCH). Wannan ita ce alamar da za ka dogara da ita.

5. Dama ta Gaskiya (The Real Opportunity): Bayan REAL CHOCH ya faru, kasuwar za ta dan dawo sama kadan (pullback) zuwa wani karamin Supply Zone da aka samar kafin ainihin faduwar. Wannan shine wurin da ya kamata ka shiga sayarwa (Sell) cikin kwanciyar hankali.

6. Ci Gaba da Faduwa: Daga nan, kasuwar za ta ci gaba da faduwa zuwa inda take da niyyar zuwa tun farko, wato zuwa wuraren da Sell Side Liquidity ($$$) take a kasa.

Sashe na 3: Yadda Zaka Bambanta Tsakanin na Jabu da na Gaskiya

Wannan shine sashe mafi muhimmanci. Ga bambance-bambancen:

Sashe na 4: Ka'idar Zinare Don Gujewa Tarko

Don ka kiyaye kanka daga fadawa irin wannan tarkon, ka rike wannan ka'idar guda daya:

"KADA KA YARDA DA CHOCH HAR SAI FARASHI YA FARA TABO BABBAN WURI (Higher Timeframe Zone) KAMAR SUPPLY KO DEMAND ZONE, SANNAN KUMA ZAI FI KYAU IDAN AN SAMI KWASAR KUDI (LIQUIDITY SWEEP) KAFIN CHOCH DIN YA FARU."

Wato, hakuri shine mabuɗin. Kada ka zama cikin Early Sellers ko Early Buyers. Jira kasuwa ta gama "wasan kwaikwayon" ta, ta kwashe kudin da take so, sannan ta baka alama ta gaskiya. Wannan dabarar zata rage maka asara sosai kuma ta kara maka yawan ciniki mai riba.

Wannan hoton da ka turo yanzu yana daga cikin muhimman darussa da duk wani dan kasuwa (trader) ya kamata ya sani. Yana bayanin babban dalilin da yasa kaso 90% na kananan 'yan kasuwa suke faduwa a kasuwa. Yana nuna bambancin tunani tsakanin Retail Trader (dan kasuwa na gari) da kuma Smart Money (Manyan 'yan kasuwa masu kudi).

Bari mu shiga ciki don ka fahimci wasan da ake bugawa a kasuwa.

Sashe na 1: Bambancin 'Yan Kasuwa

1. Retail Trader (Dan Kasuwa na gari)

Wannan shine kowane dan kasuwa mai zaman kansa, kamar ni da kai, wanda yake amfani da dan karamin jari. Galibinmu mun koyi trading ne daga litattafai, manhajojin yanar gizo (online courses), ko kuma YouTube. An koya mana wasu tsare-tsare na gargajiya kamar su:

• Support and Resistance (Goyon baya da Cikas)

• Trend Lines (Layin Tafiyar Kasuwa)

• Chart Patterns (Kamar Double Top, Double Bottom, Head and Shoulders)

2. Smart Money (Manyan 'Yan Kasuwa / Masu Kudi)

Wadannan sune manyan cibiyoyin kudi kamar Bankuna, Asusun Zuba Jari (Hedge Funds), da sauransu. Su ne suke da jarin da zai iya motsa kasuwa. Ba sa amfani da wadancan tsare-tsare na gargajiya. Manufar su guda daya ce: Neman Liquidity (Kudi).

Sashe na 2: Sharhin Tunanin Dan Kasuwa na gari (Retail Trader) a Hoton

Hoton ya nuna mana yadda dan kasuwa na gari yake tunani da kuma yadda ya fada tarkon da aka kafa masa har sau biyu.

1. Ganin "Double Bottom": Farashi ya zo wani wuri (SUPPORT LEVEL) ya tashi sama, ya sake dawowa wurin a karo na biyu ya sake tashi. Dan kasuwa na gari ya kalli wannan a matsayin "Double Bottom," wata alama ce mai karfi a littafin trading cewa kasuwa za ta tashi.

2. Shiga Saye saboda "Triple Bottom": Sai farashi ya sake dawowa wurin a karo na uku. A tunanin dan kasuwa na gari, wannan ya zama "Triple Bottom," wanda ya fi na farko karfi. Cikin kwarin gwiwa, sai ya shiga saye (Enter long), ya sanya stop-loss dinsa a karkashin wannan SUPPORT LEVEL.

3. Asara ta Farko (1st loss): Nan da nan, sai kasuwar ta fado kasa da karfi, ta karya SUPPORT LEVEL din, ta cinye stop-loss dinsa. Ya yi asara ta farko. A wannan lokacin, a ransa yana cewa, "OK, ashe kasuwar faduwa za ta yi."

4. Canja Tunani zuwa "Break and Re-test": Sai ya tuna wata ka'idar da aka koya masa: "Idan aka karya support, yana komawa resistance" (idan an karya goyon baya, ya kan koma cikas). Sai ya ga farashin ya dawo ya sake taba layin da aka karya daga kasa. A tunaninsa, wannan "re-test" ne.

5. Shiga Sayarwa (Enter short): Cikin sauri, ya sake shiga kasuwa a karo na biyu, amma wannan karon sayarwa (Sell) ya yi, yana tunanin yanzu kasuwar za ta ci gaba da faduwa. Ya sanya stop-loss dinsa a saman wannan layin.

6. Asara ta Biyu (2nd loss): Abin mamaki, da zaran ya shiga sayarwa, sai kasuwar ta sake juyawa da karfi ta tashi sama, ta sake cinye stop-loss dinsa a karo na biyu.

A karshe, sai ya zauna ya dafe kai yana fadin abin da aka rubuta a hoton: "The market has manipulated me and I got stop hunted" ("Kasuwa ta yi min magudi kuma an farauto stop-loss dina").

Sashe na 3: Sharhin Tunanin "Smart Money" (Abin da ya Faru a Zahiri)

Yanzu bari na fada maka abin da Manyan 'Yan Kasuwa (Smart Money) suke gani da kuma abin da suka aikata.

1. Ganin "Liquidity": Inda dan kasuwa na gari yake ganin "Support Level," su kuma "Sell Side Liquidity ($$$)" suke gani. Sun san cewa a karkashin wannan layin, akwai stop-loss na masu saye da yawa, wadanda duk Sell Orders ne. Wannan wuri cike yake da kudi a wurin su.

2. Aikin Farko - Kwasar Kudi (1st loss): Suka yi amfani da karfinsu suka turo farashi kasa da gangan don ya karya wannan "Support Level". Manufar su shine su kwashe dukkan stop-loss na masu saye (kamar wanda ya shiga a "Triple Bottom"). Wannan faduwar da ta jawo asara ta farko, aiki ne na Stop Hunt.

3. Tarkon Karshe (2nd loss): Bayan sun kwashe kudin masu saye, sai suka dan daga farashi sama kadan ya koma kan layin. Wannan aikin da dan kasuwa na gari ya kira "re-test," a wurin su tarko ne. Sun san cewa masu bin ka'idar "break and re-test" za su fara sayarwa. Lokacin da wadannan mutane suke sayarwa (Selling), su kuma Smart Money suna SAYE (Buying). Suna amfani da ododin sayarwar mutane don su cika manyan ododin sayen su.

4. Tafiya ta Gaskiya (The Real Move): Bayan sun gama tara ododin da suke so (sun kwashe kudin masu saye a kasa, kuma sun sayi ododin da masu sayarwa suka basu a sama), sai suka tura kasuwar zuwa ainihin inda suka dosa tun farko, wato SAMA.

Darasi

• Ka daina kallon "Support/Resistance" da "Chart Patterns" na gargajiya a matsayin abin dogaro dari bisa dari. Sau da yawa, tarko ne.

• Ka fara tunani kamar Smart Money: Ina Liquidity ($$$) take? A saman tudu (highs) da karkashin kwari (lows) masu tsafta kamar "Double/Triple Bottoms" a nan ne kudi suke.

• Maimakon ka bi taron 'yan kasuwa na gari, ka jira su fada tarkon. Jira a yi Stop Hunt (a kwashe kudin su), sannan bayan an yi, sai ka nemi alamar shiga kasuwa (kamar CHOCH) a ainihin hanyar da Smart Money suka dosa.

Wannan hoton yana koya mana mu daina bin taro, mu zama masu hakuri kuma mu koyi tunanin manyan 'yan wasan kasuwa.

hoton ya kawo wani sabon ra'ayi mai suna "INDUCEMENT," wanda yake da matukar tasiri kuma yana hade da darussan da muka yi a baya akan Liquidity da Traps. Fahimtar wannan zai sa ka kara fahimtar yadda "Smart Money" ke gudanar da kasuwa.

Bari mu shiga ciki don ka fahimci komai dalla-dalla.

Sashe na 1: Menene Inducement?

A saukake, Inducement wani tarko ne da kasuwa take kafawa don ta jawo hankalin (induce) 'yan kasuwa su shiga ciniki da wuri, kafin ainihin tafiyar kasuwar ta fara.

• A yanayin kasuwa mai tashi (Uptrend): Inducement shine kwari (swing low) na farko ko wanda yafi fita fili da kasuwa tayi bayan ta kafa sabon tudu (new high). 'Yan kasuwa na gari (Retail Traders) suna kallon wannan wurin a matsayin wuri mai kyau na saye ("higher low") don su ci gaba da tafiya da kasuwar.

• Manufarsa: An kafa wannan kwarin ne da gangan don a samar da liquidity. Mutanen da suka saya a wannan wurin na inducement, za su sanya stop-loss dinsu a karkashinsa. "Smart Money" suna bukatar wannan liquidity din don su cika manyan ododinsu.

A takaice, Inducement shine kudin da za'a fara kwashewa kafin a taba ainihin wurin shiga kasuwa.

Sashe na 2: Bayanin Hoton Mataki-bayan-Mataki

Hoton yana nuna kasuwa mai tashi (Uptrend). Ga yadda abubuwa suka faru:

1. Yanayin Kasuwa (Market Condition): Kasuwa tana hawa sama, tana yin bos (Break of Structure), wanda ke tabbatar da cewa tana cikin yanayin tashi.

2. Kafa Tarkon (inducement / trap): Bayan an yi bos, kasuwar ta dan dawo kasa ta kafa wani kwari (low) a fili. Wannan kwarin shine Inducement. An kafa shi ne don yaudarar 'yan kasuwa su fara saye a wurin, suna tunanin kasuwar za ta ci gaba da tashi daga nan.

3. Kwasar Tarkon (Sweeping the Inducement): Maimakon kasuwar ta tashi daga kan wannan inducement din, sai ta juya ta fado kasa, ta karya wannan kwarin. Wannan aikin yana kwashe dukkan stop-loss na wadanda suka yi saurin shiga saye a wurin.

4. Isa ga Wuri na Gaskiya (LTF poi): Bayan an kwashe inducement, sai kasuwar ta ci gaba da faduwa har ta kai ga ainihin wurin da ake sa ran shiga kasuwar, wato Point of Interest (POI). Wannan POI din (wanda zai iya zama Order Block ko Demand Zone) koyaushe yana kasa da inducement a yanayin kasuwa mai tashi.

5. Tabbaci a Karamin Lokaci (LTF order flow shift): Da zaran farashi ya taba wannan POI na gaskiya, sai ka koma karamin jadawali (Lower Timeframe - LTF), kamar na Minti 1 ko Minti 5. A nan ne zaka jira ka ga:

   • ch (CHOCH): Canjin hali a karamin lokacin, wanda ke nuna cewa masu saye sun fara shigowa a wannan wurin.

   • bos (BOS): Karyewar tsari a karamin lokacin, wanda ke kara tabbatar da cewa karfin ya koma hannun masu saye.

6. Shiga Kasuwa (LTF refinement entry): Mafi kyawun shiga shine bayan ka samu wannan tabbacin a karamin lokaci. Zaka iya jira farashi ya dan dawo wani karamin POI na LTF din kafin ka shiga saye (Buy).

7. Tafiya ta Gaskiya (The Real Move): Daga wannan ingantaccen wurin shigar, yanzu ana sa ran kasuwar za ta tashi da karfi ta ci gaba da ainihin tafiyarta ta tashi, har ma ta karya tudun da ya gabata.

Sashe na 3: Ka'idojin Ciniki Ta Amfani da Inducement

Idan kana son amfani da wannan dabarar, ga matakan da zaka bi:

1. Gane Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, ka tabbatar da yanayin da kasuwa take ciki (misali, Uptrend).

2. Gane Inducement: Bayan an yi sabon tudu (high), ka gano kwarin farko ko wanda yafi fitowa fili. Ka yi masa alama a matsayin Inducement. Ka sani cewa wannan BA wurin shiga bane, tarko ne.

3. Gano Wuri na Gaskiya (POI): Ka duba kasa da wannan inducement din, ka nemo ainihin Demand Zone ko Order Block wanda bai taba dawowa kansa ba. Wannan shine wurin da kake jira.

4. Jira a Kwashe shi: Ka yi hakuri, ka jira har sai farashi ya dawo ya kwashe (sweep) wannan inducement din kuma ya taba POI na gaskiya da ka zana.

5. Neman Tabbaci: Da zaran an taba POI din, sai ka koma karamin lokaci (LTF) ka jira CHOCH ya faru.

6. Shiga Ciniki: Shiga ciniki bayan ka samu tabbacin LTF. Sanya stop-loss dinka a karkashin POI din, kuma ka sanya take profit dinka a saman tudun da ya gabata.

Darasi: Ka daina zama daya daga cikin mutanen da ake amfani da su wajen samar da liquidity. Maimakon haka, ka jira a kwashe su, sannan ka shiga kasuwa tare da "Smart Money" don cin riba.

Tabbas, wannan wani darasi ne mai matukar muhimmanci wanda zai taimaka maka ka zabi wuraren shiga kasuwa mafi inganci. Wannan ra'ayin na "DISCOUNT VS PREMIUM" yana amfani da hankalin kasuwanci na yau da kullum wajen yanke shawara a trading.

Bari mu fassara shi don ka gane yadda yake aiki.

Sashe na 1: Menene Ma'anar Discount da Premium?

Kamar yadda a kasuwar yau da kullum kake son siyan kaya a farashi mai sauki (Discount) kuma ka sayar da shi a farashi mai tsada (Premium), haka ma manyan 'yan kasuwa ("Smart Money") suke tunani. Ba sa son siyan abu a lokacin da farashinsa yayi sama, kuma ba sa son sayarwa a lokacin da farashinsa yayi kasa.

Don gane wannan a jadawalin kasuwa (chart), muna amfani da wani abu da ake kira "Fibonacci tool" don auna wani zango na farashi.

1. Gano Zangon Farashi (The Range): A yanayin kasuwa mai tashi (Uptrend) kamar yadda yake a hoton, muna duba daga inda tashin ya fara (Swing low) zuwa inda ya tsaya kafin ya fara dawowa kasa (Swing high). Wannan shine zangon da zamu auna.

2. Raba Zangon Biyu: Sai mu auna wannan zangon daga kasa (1) zuwa sama (0).

   • Discount Pricing (Farashi mai Sauki): Wannan shine duk wani farashi da ke kasan tsakiyar zangon (kasa da 50% ko 0.5). Wannan shine yankin da ake la'akari da cewa farashi yayi sauki, kuma wuri ne mai kyau don SAYE.

   • Premium Pricing (Farashi mai Tsada): Wannan shine duk wani farashi da ke saman tsakiyar zangon (sama da 50% ko 0.5). Wannan shine yankin da ake la'akari da cewa farashi yayi tsada, kuma wuri ne mai kyau don SAYARWA.

   • Equilibrium Pricing (Farashi na Tsakiya): Wannan shine ainihin tsakiyar zangon (50% ko 0.5). Ana kallon sa a matsayin farashi na "daidai da daida."

Sashe na 2: Yadda Ake Amfani da Wannan Tunanin a Ciniki

Wannan ra'ayin yana aiki a matsayin matattara (filter) don ya tace maka wuraren shiga kasuwa masu kyau da marasa kyau.

Ka'ida ta Saye (Rule for Buying):

A lokacin da kasuwa take tashi (Uptrend), bayan ta karya tsari zuwa sama (Bos), BA'A son ka shiga saye har sai farashi ya dawo kasa ya shiga yankin DISCOUNT. Dalili shine, "Smart Money" suna jiran farashi yayi sauki kafin su sake saya don su ci gaba da tura kasuwar sama. Sayen abu a yankin Premium kamar ka siya tumatir ne a lokacin da yayi tsada; ribar ba yawa kuma hadarin yafi yawa.

Ka'ida ta Sayarwa (Rule for Selling):

A lokacin da kasuwa take faduwa (Downtrend), bayan ta karya tsari zuwa kasa, BA'A son ka shiga sayarwa har sai farashi ya dawo sama ya shiga yankin PREMIUM. Dalili shine, "Smart Money" suna jiran farashi yayi tsada kafin su sayar.

Sashe na 3: Aiwatarwa a kan Hoton

Yanzu bari mu duba hoton da wannan ilimin:

1. Kasuwar tana tashi kuma ta yi Bos, wanda ya tabbatar da ci gaban tashin.

2. An kafa sabon zango daga Swing low zuwa Swing high.

3. A cikin wannan zangon, an nuna mana wuraren saye guda biyu (Demand zones).

4. Demand Zone na Sama: Wannan wurin yana kusa da tsakiya (Equilibrium) ko ma a cikin yankin Premium. Wuri ne da ba shi da karfi sosai saboda farashin har yanzu yana da tsada. Wannan wurin zai iya zama Inducement (tarko) don yaudarar masu saye.

5. Demand Zone na Kasa: Wannan wurin yana can karkashin tsakiya, a cikin yankin DISCOUNT. Wannan shine wuri mafi inganci da ake sa ran "Smart Money" za su shigo su saya, saboda farashin yayi sauki.

Kammalawa

Darasi anan shine, bayan ka gano yanayin kasuwa (misali, Uptrend) da kuma samun karyewar tsari (Bos), kada ka fada ka shiga ciniki a farkon wurin da ka gani. Ka auna zangon da aka kafa, ka zana yankin Discount dinka, sannan ka jira da hakuri har sai farashi ya dawo cikin wannan yankin kafin ka nemi shiga saye.

Ka'idar a takaice ita ce: "Buy in Discount, Sell in Premium" (Ka saya a farashi mai sauki, ka sayar a farashi mai tsada). Wannan zai sa ka daina shiga ciniki da yawa marasa inganci kuma ya kara maka damar samun nasara.

Wannan darasi akan "CONSOLIDATION LIQUIDITY" yana da matukar muhimmanci domin yana bayanin abin da ke faruwa a lokacin da kasuwa ta daina tashi ko faduwa, ta fara tafiya a gefe guda (sideways). Wannan yanayin yana daya daga cikin wuraren da "Smart Money" suke kafa manyan tarkuna.

Bari mu fassara shi gida biyu kamar yadda yake a hoton.

Sashe na 1: Menene Consolidation Liquidity?

Consolidation: Wannan shine lokacin da kasuwa ta "kwanta," wato ta daina yin sabbin tudu (highs) ko sabbin kwaruruka (lows). Tana tafiya ne a tsakanin wasu farashin guda biyu, tana kirkirar wani abu kamar akwati (box) ko zango (range).

Consolidation Liquidity: A yayin da kasuwa take wannan tafiyar a gefe guda, tana kirkirar "liquidity" a sama da kasa.

• Sama da Consolidation ($ na sama): Ana samun Buy Side Liquidity. Wannan ya kunshi stop-loss na mutanen da suke sayarwa a cikin wannan zangon, da kuma buy-stop orders na 'yan kasuwan da suke jiran kasuwar ta fasa zangon zuwa sama su shiga saye.

• Kasa da Consolidation ($ na kasa): Ana samun Sell Side Liquidity. Wannan ya kunshi stop-loss na mutanen da suke saya a cikin wannan zangon, da kuma sell-stop orders na wadanda suke jiran a fasa zangon zuwa kasa su shiga sayarwa.

Babban Tunanin: "Smart Money" sukan fara yin wata tafiya ta karya (false move) zuwa daya daga cikin bangarorin don su kwashe kudin (liquidity) da ke wurin, kafin suyi ainihin tafiyar da suka nufa zuwa dayan bangaren.

Sashe na 2: Bayanin Hoton Farko (Yanayin Kasuwa mai Tashi - Bullish Scenario)

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, kasuwar tana cikin yanayin tashi (bos).

2. Kasuwa ta Kwanta (Consolidation): Bayan ta yi sabon tudu, sai ta fara tafiya a gefe guda, ta kirkiri Buy Side Liquidity a sama da Sell Side Liquidity a kasa.

3. Gano Wuri na Gaskiya: A karkashin wannan zangon, akwai wani wuri na saye (demand zone) da aka bari a baya. Wannan shine ainihin wurin da "Smart Money" suke son su saya.

4. Tafiyar Karya (The Manipulation): Maimakon kasuwar ta fasa zangon zuwa sama, sai ta fara fasa shi zuwa KASA. Wannan aikin yana kwashe dukkan Sell Side Liquidity (kudin mutanen da suka saya a cikin zangon).

5. Dalilin Tafiyar Karya: Wannan faduwar da akayi da gangan ne don a kawo farashi zuwa ainihin demand zone din da suke jira.

6. Tafiya ta Gaskiya (The Real Move): Da zaran farashi ya taba demand zone din bayan ya kwashe kudin da ke kasa, sai ya juya da karfi ya tashi sama. Yanzu zai nufi Buy Side Liquidity da ke saman zangon. Wannan shine ainihin tafiyar da ake sa ran zata faru.

Sashe na 3: Bayanin Hoton Kasa (Yanayin Kasuwa mai Faduwa - Bearish Scenario)

Wannan shine kishiyar yanayin da muka tattauna a sama.

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, kasuwar tana cikin yanayin faduwa (bos).

2. Kasuwa ta Kwanta (Consolidation): Ta fara tafiya a gefe guda, tana kirkirar liquidity a sama da kasa.

3. Gano Wuri na Gaskiya: A saman wannan zangon, akwai wani wuri na sayarwa (supply zone) da aka bari. Wannan shine ainihin wurin da "Smart Money" suke son su sayar.

4. Tafiyar Karya (The Manipulation): Sai kasuwar ta fara fasa zangon zuwa SAMA. Wannan aikin yana kwashe dukkan Buy Side Liquidity (kudin mutanen da suka sayar a cikin zangon).

5. Dalilin Tafiyar Karya: An yi wannan tashin ne da gangan don a kai farashi zuwa ainihin supply zone din da suke jira.

6. Tafiya ta Gaskiya (The Real Move): Da zaran farashi ya taba supply zone din bayan ya kwashe kudin da ke sama, sai ya juya da karfi ya fado kasa. Yanzu zai nufi Sell Side Liquidity da ke kasan zangon.

Darasi da Ka'idar Ciniki

• Idan ka ga kasuwa ta kwanta (consolidation), ka sani cewa ana shirin kwasar kudin mutane ne.

• Kada ka yi ciniki a cikin zangon. Kada kuma ka bi farkon fasawar da aka yi (initial breakout), domin galibi na karya ne.

• Matakan da zaka bi:

  1. Gano yanayin da kasuwa take kafin ta kwanta (misali, tana tashi ne?).

  2. Idan tana tashi, nemo demand zone mai kyau a karkashin zangon. Idan tana faduwa, nemo supply zone mai kyau a saman zangon.

  3. Ka yi hakuri ka jira har sai an yi tafiyar karya (sweep ko manipulation) an kwashe kudin da ke daya bangaren kuma farashi ya taba zone dinka.

  4. A wannan lokacin, sai ka nemi alamar shiga kasuwa (kamar CHOCH a karamin lokaci).

  5. Makomarka (take profit) ya zama kudin da ke dayan bangaren zangon.

A takaice, consolidation wata dama ce mai kyau idan ka san yadda zaka yi amfani da ita. Jira a yi aikin kwasar kudi, sannan ka bi ainihin tafiyar da za'a yi.

Wannan hoton yana bayani ne akan wani nau'in "Liquidity" na musamman da ake kira "EQUAL HIGHS / LOWS" (Tudu ko Kwari daidai-wa-daida). Wannan wata alama ce mai matukar karfi da "Smart Money" suke amfani da ita don kafa tarko.

Sashe na 1: Fassara da Sharhin Kalmomin Cikin Hoton

Bari mu fara da kowace kalma da alama da ke cikin hoton:

1. EQUAL H/L (Equal Highs / Lows)

• Ma'anarsa: "H" na nufin "Highs" (Tudun-tudu), "L" na nufin "Lows" (Kwaruruka). Wannan yana nufin lokacin da kasuwa ta kirkiri tudu biyu ko fiye da haka a kusan farashi daya (Equal Highs), ko kuma kwari biyu ko fiye da haka a kusan farashi daya (Equal Lows).

• Sharhi: A idon dan kasuwa na gari (Retail Trader), Equal Highs suna kama da wuri mai karfi na cikas (strong resistance), kuma Equal Lows suna kama da wuri mai karfi na goyon baya (strong support). Amma a idon "Smart Money", wadannan wuraren ba komai bane illa tarin kudi (Liquidity Pool) da aka ajiye. Suna aiki kamar maganadisu ga farashi.

2. imb (Imbalance)

• Ma'anarsa: "Rashin Daidaito." Wannan wani gibi ne da kasuwa take bari a lokacin da ta yi wata gagarumar tafiya (tashi ko faduwa) da sauri, galibi a kyandir (candle) daya ko biyu masu karfi. Wannan yana nuna cewa a wannan wurin, saye ya rinjayi sayarwa (ko akasin haka) da yawa, wanda ya haifar da rashin daidaito.

• Sharhi: Kasuwa ba ta son ta bar irin wadannan gibin. Tana son ta dawo nan gaba don ta "cike" wannan gibin (fill the imbalance). Saboda haka, idan ka ga Supply ko Demand Zone da ke kusa da imbalance, wannan zone din ya fi karfi kuma yana da yiwuwar farashi zai dawo gare shi.

3. bos (Break of Structure)

• Ma'anarsa: "Karyewar Tsari". Kamar yadda muka tattauna a baya, wannan yana nuna cewa kasuwa za ta ci gaba a kan hanyar da ta sa a gaba (trend continuation).

4. supply / demand

• Ma'anarsa: "Wurin Sayarwa" da "Wurin Saye". Waɗannan wurare ne da muke sa ran "Smart Money" za su shigo kasuwa.

5. Alamar Dala ($)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan alamar tana wakiltar "Liquidity" (kudi) da ke tattare a wani wuri. A wannan hoton, an sanya ta a saman Equal Highs da kasan Equal Lows.

Sashe na 2: Sharhin Hoton Sama (Yanayin Kasuwa mai Faduwa - Bearish Scenario)

Yanzu bari mu bi tafiyar kasuwar da ke hoton sama mataki-bayan-mataki:

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, kasuwar tana cikin yanayin faduwa (bos). Wannan faduwar ta bar baya da wani supply zone da kuma imbalance (imb).

2. Kirkirar Tarko: Sai kasuwar ta fara motsi a gefe guda ta kirkiri Equal Highs (tudun-tudu biyu a farashi daya). Wannan yana kama da wani karfi cikas (resistance) wanda zai jawo hankalin 'yan kasuwa na gari su fara sayarwa (Sell) a wurin, suna sanya stop-loss dinsu a can saman.

3. Manufar Tarko: Wannan aikin yana gina Buy Side Liquidity ($) a saman wadannan tudun.

4. Kwasar Kudi (The Sweep): Maimakon farashi ya juya daga kan wannan "resistance" din, sai ya tashi sama da karfi ya karya wadannan Equal Highs. Wannan aikin yana kwashe dukkan stop-loss na Retail Traders da suka sayar a wurin.

5. Shiga Kasuwa (The Entry): Wannan tashin da aka yi ba don komai aka yi shi ba, sai don a kai farashi zuwa ainihin wurin da ake so a je, wato supply zone din da aka bari a baya (wanda kuma ya cike imbalance). Da zaran farashi ya taba wannan zone din, "Smart Money" suna shiga da manyan ododin sayarwa.

6. Tafiya ta Gaskiya: Bayan an kwashe kudi kuma an taba supply zone, sai farashi ya juya da gaske ya fado kasa da karfi.

Sashe na 3: Sharhin Hoton Kasa (Yanayin Kasuwa mai Tashi - Bullish Scenario)

Wannan shine kishiyar na sama:

1. Yanayin Kasuwa: Kasuwar tana tashi (bos), wanda ya bar baya da demand zone da imbalance (imb).

2. Kirkirar Tarko: Sai kasuwar ta kirkiri Equal Lows (kwaruruka biyu a farashi daya). Wannan yana kama da karfi goyon baya (support) wanda zai jawo hankalin 'yan kasuwa su fara saya (Buy).

3. Manufar Tarko: Wannan yana gina Sell Side Liquidity ($) a kasan wadannan kwarurukan.

4. Kwasar Kudi (The Sweep): Farashi sai ya fado kasa ya karya wadannan Equal Lows, yana kwashe stop-loss na masu saye.

5. Shiga Kasuwa (The Entry): Wannan faduwar da gangan aka yi ta don a kai farashi zuwa ainihin demand zone din da ke kasa. Da zaran an taba shi, "Smart Money" suna shiga saye.

6. Tafiya ta Gaskiya: Bayan an kwashe kudi kuma an taba demand zone, sai farashi ya juya da gaske ya tashi sama da karfi.

Sashe na 4: Ka'idojin Shiga Kasuwa da Wannan Tsarin

Yadda ake Cinikin Equal Highs (don Sayarwa):

1. Idan ka ga an kirkiri Equal Highs, ka sani cewa wannan ba cikas bane, tarko ne.

2. Ka duba saman wadannan Equal Highs din, ka nemo wani supply zone mai kyau (zai fi kyau idan akwai imbalance a kusa).

3. Ka yi hakuri, kada ka sayar a kan Equal Highs din. Jira har sai farashi ya tashi sama ya kwashe su.

4. Lokacin da farashi ya shiga supply zone dinka bayan ya kwashe Equal Highs, a nan ne zaka nemi alamar shiga sayarwa (kamar CHOCH a karamin lokaci).

5. Makomarka (take profit) ya zama kwarurukan da ke kasa.

Yadda ake Cinikin Equal Lows (don Saye):

1. Idan ka ga an kirkiri Equal Lows, ka sani cewa wannan ba goyon baya bane, tarko ne.

2. Ka duba kasan wadannan Equal Lows din, ka nemo wani demand zone mai kyau.

3. Ka yi hakuri, ka jira har sai farashi ya fado kasa ya kwashe su.

4. Lokacin da farashi ya shiga demand zone dinka bayan ya kwashe Equal Lows, a nan ne zaka nemi alamar shiga saye.

5. Makomarka (take profit) ya zama tudun da ke sama.

Kammalawa

Babban darasin anan shine, Equal Highs da Equal Lows ba wuraren juyawar kasuwa bane, a'a, wuraren da kasuwa za ta je ne don ta kwashe kudi. Ta hanyar fahimtar haka, zaka daina fada wa tarkon da ake kafawa Retail Traders, kuma zaka fara ciniki tare da "Smart Money".

Sashe na 1: Fassara da Sharhin Kalmomin Cikin Hoton

1. Order Flow

• Ma'anarsa: A Hausa, zamu iya kiransa da "Gudun Tafiyar Ododi." Wannan yana nufin yadda ododin saye (buy orders) da na sayarwa (sell orders) suke gudana a kasuwa, wanda hakan ke tura farashi daga wani wuri zuwa wani a cikin yanayin tashi ko faduwa. Yana nuna maka su waye ke da iko a kasuwa a halin yanzu—masu saye ne ko masu sayarwa?

• Sharhi:

  • Bullish Order Flow (Gudun Tafiyar Masu Saye): Wannan shine lokacin da masu saye ke da iko. Kasuwa za ta ci gaba da karya tudun-tudu na baya (BOS), kuma za ta ci gaba da mutunta wuraren saye (Demand Zones).

  • Bearish Order Flow (Gudun Tafiyar Masu Sayarwa): Wannan shine lokacin da masu sayarwa ke da iko. Kasuwa za ta ci gaba da karya kwaruruka na baya (BOS), kuma za ta ci gaba da mutunta wuraren sayarwa (Supply Zones).

2. respected

• Ma'anarsa: "An Mutunta."

• Sharhi: A trading, idan aka ce wani wuri an "mutunta" shi, yana nufin farashi ya iso wurin kuma ya kasa karya shi, maimakon haka sai ya juya. A hoton, an nuna cewa an mutunta wani Supply Zone, wanda hakan ya hana kasuwar ci gaba da tashi.

3. bos (Break of Structure)

• Ma'anarsa: "Karyewar Tsari." Wannan yana tabbatar da ci gaban Order Flow da ake ciki. Idan ana cikin Bullish Order Flow, kowane BOS zuwa sama yana kara tabbatar da shi.

4. ch (Change of Character)

• Ma'anarsa: "Canjin Hali." Wannan ita ce alama ta farko da ke nuna cewa Order Flow da ake ciki ya fara samun rauni kuma yana iya juyawa.

Sashe na 2: Sharhin Tafiyar Kasuwa Mataki-bayan-Mataki

Hoton ya nuna mana tafiyar kasuwa guda biyu:

Farkon Tafiya - Gudun Tafiyar Masu Saye (Bullish Order Flow)

1. A hannun hagu, kasuwa tana cikin yanayin tashi. Tana yin tudu, ta dan dawo kasa, sannan ta sake tashi ta karya tudun da ya gabata.

2. Kowane lokaci da ta karya tudun da ya gabata, ana samun bos. Wannan yana nuna mana cewa Bullish Order Flow na nan da karfinsa, kuma masu saye ne ke da cikakken iko. Tafiyar tana gudana lami lafiya.

Juyawar Tafiya - Canjin Iko (The Shift in Order Flow)

1. Kasuwar ta kai wani tudu na karshe, amma sai ta kasa karya shi. Maimakon haka, an "mutunta" (respected) wani Supply Zone da ke wurin. Wannan ita ce alama ta farko cewa karfin masu saye ya fara raguwa.

2. Daga nan, sai kasuwar ta fado kasa ta karya kwarin karshe da ta yi kafin ta kai wancan tudun. Wannan shine ch (Change of Character). A wannan lokacin, Bullish Order Flow ya karye a hukumance. Wannan ita ce nasara ta farko ga masu sayarwa.

3. Bayan CHOCH, kasuwar ta dan koma sama kadan, sannan ta sake faduwa ta karya sabon kwarin da aka kafa. Wannan shine bos na farko zuwa kasa. Wannan yana tabbatar mana da cewa yanzu iko ya koma hannun masu sayarwa, kuma an shiga sabon yanayi na Bearish Order Flow.

Sabuwar Tafiya - Gudun Tafiyar Masu Sayarwa (Bearish Order Flow)

1. Yanzu kasuwar ta fara yanayin faduwa. Tana yin kwari, ta dan dawo sama zuwa wani Supply Zone, sannan ta sake faduwa ta karya kwarin da ya gabata.

2. Kowane lokaci da ta karya kwarin da ya gabata, ana samun bos zuwa kasa. Wannan yana tabbatar mana da cewa Bearish Order Flow na nan da karfinsa, kuma masu sayarwa ne ke da cikakken iko.

Sashe na 3: Yadda Ake Ciniki da Order Flow

Manufarka a matsayinka na dan kasuwa shine ka gane wane irin Order Flow ake ciki, sannan ka bi shi.

1. Idan kana cikin Bullish Order Flow:

   • Aikin ka shine ka nemi damar SAYE (Buy) kawai.

   • Jira farashi ya dawo kasa zuwa wani Demand Zone mai kyau (wanda ke cikin Discount).

   • Idan ya zo, sai ka shiga saye, kuma makomarka (take profit) ya zama a saman tudun da ya gabata.

2. Idan kana cikin Bearish Order Flow:

   • Aikin ka shine ka nemi damar SAYARWA (Sell) kawai.

   • Jira farashi ya dawo sama zuwa wani Supply Zone mai kyau (wanda ke cikin Premium).

   • Idan ya zo, sai ka shiga sayarwa, kuma makomarka ya zama a kasan kwarin da ya gabata.

3. Yayin da Order Flow ke Juyawa:

   • Idan ka ga an yi CHOCH a kan Order Flow da ake ciki, wannan alama ce ta gargadi.

   • Kada ka yi gaggawar shiga ciniki a sabon yanayin har sai ka ga an yi BOS na farko wanda zai tabbatar maka da cewa an kafa sabon Order Flow. Bayan wannan tabbacin, sai ka fara neman ciniki a sabon yanayin.

Kammalawa

Order Flow shine bugun zuciyar kasuwa. Idan ka san ko Bullish ne ko Bearish, ka san wane bangare ya kamata ka kasance. BOS yana tabbatar maka da cewa yanayin na nan daram, yayin da CHOCH yake baka kashedin cewa yanayin na iya canzawa. Yin ciniki tare da Order Flow shine hanya mafi aminci da zaka iya samun nasara a kasuwa.

 Wannan hoton yana nuna maka cikakken tsarin shiga kasuwa na Smart Money Concept (SMC) mataki-bayan-mataki, daga gano yanayin kasuwa har zuwa ainihin wurin shiga.

Matakan Shiga Kasuwa Guda Biyar (The Five Entry Steps)

Wannan tsarin ya rabu kashi biyar ne don samun shiga kasuwa mai inganci.

1. Gano Babban Yanayi (HTF Bias) 🧭

Da farko, muna duba jadawali na babban lokaci (Higher Timeframe) don sanin wane yanayi kasuwa take ciki. A hoton, an nuna HTF bos (Karyewar Tsari a Babban Lokaci) zuwa sama. Wannan yana nufin kasuwa tana tashi, saboda haka, saye (buy) kawai zamu nema. Kamar kana son bin kogi ne, da farko sai ka san inda ruwan yake kwarara.

2. Zabi Wurin Shiga (Point of Interest - POI) 📍

Bayan mun san cewa saye zamu yi, sai mu nemo wuri mai kyau da zamu jira farashi ya dawo. Wannan shine wurin saye (demand zone) wanda aka bari a baya. Wannan shine wurin da muke sa ran "Smart Money" zasu shigo.

3. Jira a Gina Tarko (Wait for Liquidity) 💰

Anan ne hakuri yake shigowa. Maimakon farashi ya dawo kai tsaye zuwa demand zone dinmu, sai ya fara kirkirar "tarko" a kusa da shi. A hoton, ya kirkiri equal lows / liquidity (Kwaruruka daidai-wa-daida). Wannan yana gina Sell Side Liquidity—kudin mutanen da suke saye a wannan wurin.

4. Bari a Kwashe Tarkon (Wait for the Sweep) 🧹

Wannan shine aikin da "Smart Money" suke yi. Suna turo farashi kasa da gangan don ya karya wadannan equal lows kuma ya kwashe dukkan stop-loss na mutane. Wannan aikin kwasar kudin (sweep) yana da manufa guda biyu:

• Samar da kudin da zasu cika manyan ododinsu.

• Kai farashi zuwa ainihin demand zone dinmu da muke jira.

5. Nemi Tabbaci (Get Confirmation) ✅

Da zaran farashi ya kwashe liquidity kuma ya shiga demand zone dinmu, har yanzu bamu shiga ba. Sai mu koma karamin jadawali (Lower Timeframe) mu jira alamar karshe. Wannan alamar ita ce change of character (ch). Wannan yana nuna mana cewa masu saye sun fara karbar iko a wannan wurin. Bayan an samu wannan tabbacin, sai mu shiga saye a dawowar farashi na gaba.

A Takaice (In a Nutshell)

Kallon babban lokaci don sanin alkibla 🧭, zabi wurin shiga mai kyau, jira a kwashe kudin da ke kusa da wurin, sannan ka nemi karamar alama (ch) kafin ka shiga. Wannan shine ainihin tsarin shiga kasuwa na SMC.

 Wannan hoton yana nuna maka yadda 'Smart Money Trader' (kwararren dan kasuwa) yake tunani. Maimakon ya koka kan 'magudi,' sai ya yi amfani da tarkon da aka kafa wajen samun riba.

Yadda Kwararre Yake Kallon Kasuwa (How the Pro Sees the Market)

Wannan shine tsarin tunanin kwararre mataki-bayan-mataki, wanda ya sha bamban da na dan kasuwa na gari.

1. Gano Kudi (Identify the Liquidity) 🎯

Inda kowa ke ganin 'goyon baya' (support) a wurin EQL - SSL? (Equal Lows), shi kuma kudi ($$$) yake gani. Ya san cewa kasuwa za ta je wurin don ta kwashe kudin da ke ajiye a wurin.

2. Jira a Kwashe Kudi (Wait for the Sweep) 🧘‍♂️

Yana jira da hakuri har sai an karya wannan 'goyon bayan' kuma an kwashe stop-loss na mutane. Wannan shine aikin da aka yiwa lakabi da Liquidity swept. A wannan lokacin ne yake fara tattara ododinsa (Accumulation of orders).

3. Neman Tabbaci (Look for Confirmation) ✅

Bayan an kwashe kudin, sai ya jira alamar cewa masu saye sun karbi iko. Wannan alamar ita ce bos (Break of Structure) zuwa sama. Lokacin da farashi ya karya wani Failed supply, wannan ya kara tabbatar masa da cewa masu saye sun fi karfi.

4. Zabar Wurin Shiga (Pick the Entry Spot) 📍

Yanzu ya san masu saye ne ke da iko. Sai ya zabi ainihin wurin sayen (DEMAND zone) da ya jawo wannan karfin da ya sa aka samu bos. Wannan shine wurin da yake da yakinin manyan ododi na bankuna zasu shigo (Triggers massive orders by institutions).

5. Sanya Oda da Jira (Set the Order and Wait) 🎣

Sai ya sanya odar sa ta saye (buy limit) a wannan DEMAND zone ya jira farashi ya dawo gare shi. Wannan shine abin da ake nufi da Perfect buy limit at demand retest.

6. Cin Riba (Take the Profit) 🚀

Daga nan, ana sa ran kasuwa za ta tashi sama sosai don ta kafa sabon tudu (New high), saboda an riga an kwashe kudin da ake bukata kuma an shiga daga wuri mai inganci.

Muhimman Kalmomi (Key Terms)

• Accumulation of orders: Tattara ododi. Wannan shine lokacin da manyan 'yan kasuwa suke ta saya a hankali a farashi mai sauki bayan an kwashe kudin wasu.

• Failed supply: Wurin sayarwa da ya gaza. Yana nuna cewa masu saye sun fi karfi kuma sun karya wurin da masu sayarwa suke da karfi a da.

• Liquidity swept: An kwashe kudi. Wato an cinye stop-loss na 'yan kasuwa na gari waɗanda suka saya a kan Equal Lows.

Wannan hoton yana nuna maka yadda zaka haɗa dukkan darussan da muka yi a baya wuri guda don ka samu ainihin wurin shiga kasuwa a aikace. Yana nuna maka tsarin a zane da kuma yadda yake a ainihin jadawalin kyandir (candlestick chart).

Yadda Zane ya Zama Ciniki na Gaske (How the Drawing Becomes a Real Trade)

Hoton ya kasu gida biyu, amma dukansu abu daya suke nuna mana.

• Zanen Sama (The Top Drawing) ✍️ Wannan yana nuna maka tsarin a tsaftace, ba tare da 'hayaniyar' kasuwa ba. Yana taimaka maka ka gane ainihin abin da kake nema.

• Zanen Kasa (The Bottom Chart) 🕯️ Wannan kuma shine yadda tsarin yake a zahiri a kan jadawalin da zaka yi amfani da shi. Kyandir-kyandir din suna nuna ainihin abin da ya faru. Yana tabbatar maka da cewa wannan tsarin ba na zane kawai bane, yana faruwa a kasuwa kullum.

Bitar Matakan Shiga Kasuwa (Review of the Entry Steps)

Wannan hoton yana nuna mana wani tsari na neman damar sayarwa (Sell). Ga yadda ya faru mataki-bayan-mataki:

1. An Samu Canji (A Change Occurs) ⚠️

Kasuwa tana tashi (bos), amma sai ta kasa yin sabon tudu. Maimakon haka, sai ta fado ta karya kwarin da ya gabata. Wannan shine ch (Change of Character). Wannan ya nuna mana cewa masu saye sun fara rasa karfi kuma yanayi na iya juyawa.

2. An Gina Tarko (A Trap is Built) 🐭

Sai kasuwa ta sake tashi sama, amma ta kafa wani tudu da bai kai na farko ba. Wannan shine ind (Inducement). An kafa shi ne don a yaudari 'yan kasuwa su shiga sayarwa da wuri, suna tunanin kasuwa ba zata wuce nan ba.

3. An Kwashe Tarkon (The Trap is Sprung) ✅

Maimakon kasuwa ta juya a wurin inducement, sai ta tashi sama ta kwashe stop-loss na wadanda suka shiga da wuri (sweep). Wannan kwasar kudin ta kai farashi zuwa ainihin Supply Zone (wurin sayarwa) wanda ke can saman farko. Wannan shine ainihin wurin da kwararru suke jira don su shiga sayarwa.

4. An Nufi Makoma (The Target is Set) 🎯

Bayan an shiga daga wannan Supply Zone mai inganci, yanzu makomar ita ce kudin da aka bari a kasa, wato ssl - $ (Sell Side Liquidity). Ana sa ran kasuwa za ta fado da karfi zuwa wannan wurin.

 Wannan hoton yana nuna maka wani tsari na ciniki da ake kira 'High Probability' (Mai Yiwuwa Sosai). Wannan yana nufin tsari ne da ya haɗa dukkan manyan alamomi masu karfi wuri guda, wanda hakan ke kara maka damar samun nasara.

Abubuwa Hudu da Suka Hada Wannan Tsarin (The Four Things That Make Up This Setup)

Don wani tsari ya zama "High Probability," yana bukatar ya cika wasu sharudda guda hudu, kuma dukansu suna cikin wannan hoton.

1. Goyon Bayan Babban Lokaci (HTF Alignment) 🗺️

Cinikin yana farawa ne daga wani babban wuri na sayarwa na babban lokaci (HTF SUPPLY). Wannan kamar samun izini ne daga manyan 'yan wasa cewa lallai faduwa kasuwar za ta yi. Ba wai kawai ka shiga ne don ka ga wata karamar alama ba.

2. Tabbacin Juyawar Kasuwa (Confirmed Reversal) 🔄

Ba'a shiga a makance ba. An jira an ga an karya tsari sau biyu don a tabbatar kasuwar ta juya:

• Da farko an yi ch (Change of Character).

• Sannan an sake yi bos (Break of Structure) zuwa kasa. Wannan ya tabbatar mana dari bisa dari cewa masu sayarwa sun karbi iko.

3. Gina Makoma (Building the Target) 🎯

Kafin a shiga cinikin, kasuwa ta fara kirkirar 'tarko' ko Liquidity accumulation (Tarin Kudi). Wannan tarkon, musamman kudin da ke kasa ssl - $ (Retail SL to be swept), shine zai zama ainihin makomarmu (take profit) bayan mun shiga. Kasuwa ta riga ta gina mana inda za mu ci riba.

4. Shiga ta Hanyar Tarko (Entering via a Trap) 🎣

Ba'a shiga cinikin kai tsaye ba. An jira har sai farashi ya dawo sama, ya kwashe kudin da ke saman wannan tarkon ($ na sama), sannan ya shiga ainihin wurin sayarwa mafi karfi wanda shine EXTREME SUPPLY. Wannan shine shiga mafi inganci saboda an bari an kwashe 'yan kasuwa marasa hakuri kafin a shiga.

A Takaice (In a Nutshell)

Wato, kana neman cinikin da yake da goyon bayan babban lokaci, ya nuna maka cewa ya juya, ya gina maka inda zaka ci riba, sannan ya baka dama ta hanyar kwashe wani tarko. Idan ka samu duka wadannan abubuwa guda hudu a ciniki daya, wannan ciniki ne mai 'High Probability'. 🤑

Wannan hoton yana nuna maka yadda zaka gane wani ingantaccen tsari na neman damar saye (Buy). Shine kishiyar wanda muka tattauna a baya, kuma shima 'High Probability' ne.

Matakan Gane Wannan Damar (Steps to Spotting This Opportunity)

Ga yadda zaka bi wannan tsarin mataki-bayan-mataki don samun damar ciniki mai kyau.

1. Gano Karshen Faduwa (Spotting the End of the Downtrend) 📉➡️📈

Kasuwa tana cikin faduwa sosai (Downtrend da Multiple BOS). Amma sai ta zo ta kasa yin sabon kwari, maimakon haka sai ta tashi sama ta karya tudun da ya gabata. Wannan shine CHoCH (Change of Character). Wannan shine alama ta farko da ke nuna cewa masu saye sun fara dawowa kuma faduwar na iya zuwa karshe.

2. Kirkirar Tarko (Creating the Trap) 🪤

Bayan CHoCH, sai kasuwa ta dan fado kasa ta kafa wani kwari a fili. Wannan kwarin tarkon Liquidity ($) ne. An kafa shi ne don ya jawo hankalin 'yan kasuwa marasa hakuri su shiga saye da wuri, suna tunanin kasuwar ba za ta sake faduwa ba.

3. Zabar Wuri Mai Kyau (Picking a Good Spot) 📍

A karkashin wannan tarkon (Liquidity), akwai ainihin wurin sayenmu, wato Demand Zone. Mafi ingancin wurin shine wanda ya jawo CHoCH din, wanda ake kira Extreme Demand Zone. Wannan shine wurin da muke son mu saya, ba a kan tarkon ba.

4. Jira a Kwashe Kudi (Wait for the Sweep) ✅

Muna jira da hakuri har sai farashi ya fado ya kwashe kudin da ke kan tarkon (Liquidity Sweep). Wannan faduwar zata kawo farashi zuwa Demand Zone dinmu. A wannan lokacin, an 'cika' ododin manyan 'yan kasuwa, wanda shine abin da ake nufi da Demand has been mitigated.

5. Fara Tashin (The Takeoff) 🚀

Bayan an cika Demand Zone din, yanzu ana sa ran kasuwa zata ci gaba da tashi da karfi (Bullish Continuation), saboda an riga an kwashe kudin da ake bukata kuma an shiga daga wuri mai inganci.

Babban Darasi (The Main Lesson)

Darasi anan shine: Bayan ka ga alamar juyawar kasuwa (CHoCH), kada ka yi gaggawar shiga. Jira a kafa wani tarko na Liquidity, sannan ka shiga daga ainihin Demand Zone da ke karkashinsa bayan an kwashe tarkon. Wannan yana tace maka damammaki marasa inganci kuma yana kara maka damar cin nasara. 👍

Insha Allahu, zan yi maka bayani dalla-dalla, mataki-mataki, a yadda ko wanda bai taba yin trading ba zai iya fahimta. Zan raba bayanin zuwa kashi uku:

1. Sharhin Kalmomi da Alamomin da ke Cikin Hoton.

2. Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Tsarin ke Aiki Gaba Daya.

3. Ka'idojin da Zaka Bi Wajen Shiga Fatauci da Wannan Tsarin.

Kashi Na Farko: Sharhin Kalmomi da Alamomi

Ga kowace kalma da alama da ke cikin hoton da kuma ma'anarta:

1. 15minute Pro Orderflow:

   • Ma'ana: Wannan shine sunan dabarar (strategy). Yana nufin "tsarin kwararar oda na kwararru a kan jadawalin minti 15." Wato, hanya ce da manyan 'yan kasuwa (kamar bankuna) suke amfani da ita don yin fatauci a kan jadawali (chart) na kowane minti 15.

2. Market is in Uptrend:

   • Ma'ana: "Kasuwa na cikin tashin gwauron zabi." Wannan yana nufin farashin wata kadara (asset), kamar kudin wata kasa ko crypto, yana tashi sama. Ana gane hakan ne idan kasuwa tana yin sabon wuri mafi tsada (higher high) da kuma sabon wuri mafi rahusa amma wanda ya fi na baya (higher low).

3. Bullish Move:

   • Ma'ana: "Tashin farashi mai karfi." Wannan yana nufin motsin da farashi yake yi zuwa sama da gaggawa da kuma karfi.

4. bos (Break of Structure):

   • Ma'ana: "Karyewar Tsari." Wannan kalma tana daya daga cikin muhimman kalmomi a wannan dabarar. Yana nufin lokacin da farashi ya haura ya wuce tsohon wurin da ya fi tsada (previous high) a lokacin da kasuwa ke tashi (uptrend). Wannan yana tabbatar mana cewa kasuwar tana nan daram a kan tashinta.

5. $$$$ (Liquidity):

   • Ma'ana: "Kudi/Oda." A harkar trading, wannan alamar tana wakiltar wuraren da ake da tarin oda na 'yan kasuwa, musamman ma wuraren da mutane suka sanya stop-loss (umarnin rufe kasuwanci idan farashi ya kai wani wuri don rage asara). Manyan 'yan kasuwa suna son su tura farashi zuwa wadannan wuraren don su "kwashe" wadannan ododin kafin su juya farashin zuwa ainihin inda zai dosa.

6. 15min Demand Zone:

   • Ma'ana: "Yankin Bukata na Minti 15." Wannan wani kebantaccen wuri ne a kan jadawali inda ake sa ran masu saye da yawa suna jira. Yawanci, wannan yankin shi ne ya haddasa tashin karfi na karshe wanda ya kai ga karyewar tsari (bos). Anan ne manyan 'yan kasuwa suke son su dawo su kara shiga kasuwa a farashi mai sauki.

7. choch (Change of Character):

   • Ma'ana: "Canjin Hali." Wannan ma kalma ce mai matukar muhimmanci. Tana nufin lokacin da farashi ya karyo ya wuce wuri mafi rahusa na karshe (previous low) a lokacin da kasuwa ke tashi (uptrend). Wannan shine alama ta farko da ke nuna cewa watakila kasuwar na neman canza akala daga tashi zuwa faduwa, koda kuwa na dan lokaci ne. A wannan hoton, wannan canjin hali wata yaudara ce.

8. Bearish Move:

   • Ma'ana: "Faduwar farashi mai karfi." Wannan shine kishiyar Bullish Move, wato motsin da farashi yake yi zuwa kasa da karfi.

9. Liquidity Sweep:

   • Ma'ana: "Kwashewar Kudi/Oda." Wannan shine aikin da farashi yake yi na zuwa ya "share" ko kuma ya "kwashe" wadancan ododin ($$$$) da muka yi bayani a baya. Farashin zai karyo kasa da gangan don ya fitar da kananan 'yan kasuwa daga kasuwancin su kafin ya juya sama.

10. Price come back into demand zone:

    • Ma'ana: "Farashi ya dawo cikin yankin bukata." Wannan shine lokacin da, bayan an kwashe liquidity, farashi ya shigo daidai cikin wancan yankin da muka zana (Demand Zone) inda ake sa ran masu saye zasu shigo.

11. Alamar Mutum da Bindiga (Sniper Icon):

    • Ma'ana: Wannan alama tana nufin shiga kasuwa daidai kan wuri, kamar yadda maharbi (sniper) yake harbi daidai kan abin da ya sa a gaba. Yana nufin mai fatauci zai jira da hakuri har sai farashi ya shigo daidai wurin da yake so kafin ya shiga.

12. Bullish Continuation:

    • Ma'ana: "Ci gaban Tashi." Wannan shine abin da ake sa ran zai faru a karshe. Bayan duk wannan wasan kwaikwayon, ana sa ran kasuwar zata ci gaba da ainihin tafiyarta ta asali, wato tashi sama.

Kashi Na Biyu: Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Tsarin Hoton Yake Aiki

Yanzu bari in hada maka dukkan wadannan kalmomi wuri guda don ka fahimci labarin da hoton yake bayarwa:

1. Farko-farko, kasuwar tana cikin yanayin tashi (Uptrend). Tana tashi sama, sannan ta dan dawo kasa kadan, sannan ta sake tashi sama ta wuce inda ta tsaya a baya. Duk lokacin da ta wuce tsohon wurin da ta tsaya, muna kiransa Break of Structure (bos). Wannan yana tabbatar mana cewa masu saye ne ke da iko.

2. A lokacin da kasuwar ke wannan tashin, tana barin wasu wurare a kasa wadanda a nan ne kananan 'yan kasuwa suke sanya stop-loss dinsu. Wadannan wuraren suna taruwa su zama Liquidity ($$$$).

3. Sai abu mai ban mamaki ya faru. Maimakon kasuwar ta ci gaba da tashi, sai ta fara juyowa kasa. Za ta karyo kasa har ta wuce wurin da ta fara tashi na karshe. Wannan shine Change of Character (choch). A wannan lokacin, yawancin 'yan kasuwa masu karancin ilimi zasu dauka cewa kasuwar ta juya zuwa faduwa, don haka zasu fara sayarwa.

4. Amma a zahiri, wannan faduwar wata yaudara ce. Manufar wannan faduwar (Bearish Move) shine guda biyu:

   • Na Farko: A "kwashe" stop-loss na wadanda suka saya a baya (Liquidity Sweep).

   • Na Biyu: A dawo da farashin zuwa wani muhimmin wuri mai rahusa da ake kira Demand Zone. Wannan wurin shine inda manyan 'yan kasuwa (bankuna) suka ajiye manyan ododin saye.

5. A daidai lokacin da farashi ya kwashe liquidity kuma ya shigo cikin Demand Zone, anan ne kwararren dan kasuwa (wanda ake yi wa alama da maharbi) yake shiga kasuwa ya saya.

6. Bayan manyan 'yan kasuwa sun sami damar saya a farashi mai rahusa, sai su fara tura farashin sama da karfi, wanda hakan zai haifar da ci gaban ainihin trend din na asali, wato Bullish Continuation.

A takaice dai, wannan dabara ce ta bin sawun manyan 'yan kasuwa, ta hanyar fahimtar cewa suna yaudarar kananan 'yan kasuwa su sayar, don su (manyan) su samu damar saya a farashi mai sauki kafin su tura kasuwar sama.

Kashi Na Uku: Ka'idojin Shiga Fatauci (Trading) da Wannan Tsarin

Idan kana so ka yi amfani da wannan tsarin a matsayinka na dan koyo, ga ka'idojin da zaka bi mataki-mataki:

1. Gano Asalin Yanayin Kasuwa (Identify the Trend): Mataki na farko shine ka tabbatar da cewa kasuwar tana cikin Uptrend a kan babban jadawali (kamar na awa 1 ko awa 4). Dole ne a kalla ka ga kasuwar tana yin higher highs da higher lows.

2. Nemo Karyewar Tsari (Find the BOS): Kalli jadawalin minti 15. Jira har sai farashi ya tashi sama ya wuce wuri mafi tsada na baya-bayan nan. Wannan shine BOS dinka, wanda ya tabbatar da karfin tashin.

3. Zana Yankin Bukata (Identify the Demand Zone): Gano kyandir (candle) na karshe na sayarwa kafin farashin ya tashi da karfi wanda ya haifar da wancan BOS. Wannan yankin shine Demand Zone dinka. Ka zana akwati a kansa.

4. Yi Hakurin Jira (Be Patient): Wannan shine mataki mafi wahala amma kuma mafi muhimmanci. Kada ka bi kasuwa. Jira farashi ya fara juyowa kasa. Jira shi ya karyo kasa ya wuce wurin da ya fara tashi na karshe (CHoCH). Wannan zai kwashe Liquidity.

5. Shiga Kasuwanci (Execute the Trade): Da zaran farashi ya shigo cikin Demand Zone da ka zana, wannan shine lokacin shigarka. Zaka iya sanya umarnin saye (buy order) a farkon yankin.

6. Sanya Kariyar Asara (Set Your Stop-Loss): Wajibi ne ka sanya stop-loss. Sanya shi 'yan pips kadan a karkashin Demand Zone dinka. Idan farashi ya karyo ya wuce wannan yankin, to lissafinka bai yi daidai ba, kuma zai fi kyau ka fita da 'yar karamar asara.

7. Sanya Wurin Cin Riba (Set Your Take-Profit): Wurin da ya kamata ka sa ran za ka ci riba shine a wuri mafi tsada na baya (previous high) inda aka samu BOS, ko kuma sama da shi.

Shawara Mai Muhimmanci: Kada ka fara amfani da wannan dabarar da kudi na gaske. Ka je ka bude asusun gwaji (demo account), ka yi ta gwada wannan tsarin har sai ka gane shi sosai kuma ka saba da shi. Harka ce da ke bukatar hakuri da ilimi.

Kamar yadda na yi a baya, zan bi shi mataki-mataki.

Kashi Na Farko: Sharhin Sababbin Kalmomi da Banbanci

Wannan hoton ya yi amfani da yawancin kalmomin da muka gani a baya kamar BOS da CHoCH. Amma ya kawo wasu sababbi da kuma wasu karin haske:

1. Bullish Orderflow Explained:

   • Ma'ana: "Karin Bayani a kan Tsarin Tashin Kasuwa." Wato wannan hoton ya zo ne don ya kara mana ilimi a kan wanda muka gani a baya.

2. Consolidation that has see usually in Asian Session:

   • Ma'ana: "Rangi ko Tafiyar Gwauro da Mace wadda aka fi gani a Lokacin Kasuwancin Nahiyar Asiya."

   • Sharhi: Consolidation ko Rangi shine lokacin da farashi ke tafiya a gefe guda ba tare da ya tashi sama ko ya fado kasa ba sosai. Yana nuna kasuwar bata da cikakken alkibla. Sau da yawa, ana samun wannan yanayin a lokacin kasuwancin Asiya (Asian Session) saboda karancin hada-hada. A wannan lokacin, ana tara liquidity a sama da kuma kasan wannan rangin.

3. Break towards upside but there's liquidity that needs to be grabbed:

   • Ma'ana: "Karyewa zuwa sama amma akwai kudi/oda da ake bukatar a kwashe."

   • Sharhi: Wannan yana nufin koda farashi ya fita daga rangin nan ya nufi sama, akwai yiwuwar cewa wannan tashin ba zai dore ba saboda akwai liquidity da aka bari a kasa wanda dole ne manyan 'yan kasuwa su dawo su kwashe.

4. Demand has failed here (Alamar X):

   • Ma'ana: "Yankin bukata ya gaza a nan."

   • Sharhi: Wannan shine darasi mafi girma a wannan hoton. Yana nuna mana cewa ba kowane Demand Zone bane yake aiki. Wani lokacin, farashi zai zo ya wuce ta cikin yankin bukata ya karyar da shi, kamar yadda aka nuna da jan alamar 'X'. Wanda ya shiga saye a wannan yankin, ya yi asara.

5. Extreme Demand Zone (Alamar Kwan Wuta da Littafi):

   • Ma'ana: "Yanki Mafi Ingancin Bukata."

   • Sharhi: Wannan shine yankin bukata na karshe kuma mafi karfi wanda ya haddasa dukkan tashin da aka gani tun daga farko. Yawanci shine tushen dukkan motsin. Alamar kwan wuta da littafi na nuna cewa nan ne "ilimin" yake, kuma wuri ne da ya kamata a mai da hankali sosai a kansa. Shi ne wuri mafi aminci da ake sa ran farashi zai juya.

6. Extreme Demand did hold the price... (Alamar ✔):

   • Ma'ana: "Yankin mafi ingancin bukata ya rike farashi..."

   • Sharhi: Wannan yana tabbatar da cewa lissafin ya yi daidai. Farashin ya gaza a yankin farko amma da ya iso yankin Extreme, sai ya rike shi kuma ya fara juyawa sama, kamar yadda aka nuna da koren alamar 'check'.

7. Bullish continuation with confirmation:

   • Ma'ana: "Ci gaban tashi tare da tabbaci."

   • Sharhi: Wannan yana nuna cewa bayan farashi ya shigo yankin nan mai inganci (Extreme Demand), ba kawai za ka shiga a makance ba. Zai fi kyau ka dan jira ka ga wani karamin "tabbaci" (confirmation), kamar wani kyandir mai nuna karfin masu saye, kafin ka shiga.

Kashi Na Biyu: Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Wannan Tsarin Yake Aiki

Wannan hoton ya ba da labari mai zurfi fiye da na farko:

1. Kamar da, kasuwar tana cikin Uptrend tana yin BOS.

2. Sai kasuwar ta shiga yanayin Consolidation (rangi), inda take tara liquidity a sama da kasa.

3. Farashi ya fito daga rangin nan zuwa sama, inda ya sake yin wani BOS. Wannan ya samar da wani yankin bukata (Demand Zone) na kusa.

4. Sai farashi ya fara juyowa kasa, inda ya yi CHoCH. 'Yan kasuwa da yawa zasu dauka lokacin saye ya yi idan farashi ya dawo yankin bukata na kusa.

5. Anan ne tarkon yake: Farashi ya shigo yankin bukata na farko amma sai ya gaza rikewa (Demand has failed). Ya wuce ta cikinsa kai tsaye, wanda hakan zai cire duk wadanda suka saya a wannan wurin daga kasuwa (sun yi asara).

6. Farashin ya ci gaba da faduwa har sai da ya kai ga Extreme Demand Zone, wato tushen da ya haddasa dukkan tashin tun daga farko. Wannan shine wurin da ainihin manyan 'yan kasuwa suke jira.

7. A wannan karon, yankin ya rike farashi (Extreme Demand did hold). Kwararren dan kasuwa zai jira sai farashi ya shigo nan, watakila ma ya nemi wani karamin tabbaci, sannan ya shiga saye.

8. Daga wannan wuri mai karfi, sai farashi ya juya da gaske kuma ya ci gaba da ainihin alkiblarsa ta tashi sama (Bullish continuation).

Kashi Na Uku: Muhimman Darussan da Zamu Koya

Wannan hoton yana koyar da mu darussa masu tsada guda hudu:

1. Ba Kowane Yankin Bukata (Demand Zone) ke Aiki Ba: Darasi na farko shine ka sani cewa trading game da yiwuwa ne. Wani lokacin yankin da ka zana zai gaza. Wannan abu ne da yake faruwa.

2. Gane Bambancin Yankuna: Akwai yankuna na kusa da kuma akwai na "Extreme" (na karshe a tushe). Yawancin lokuta, yankunan Extreme sun fi karfi da inganci fiye da na kusa. Ka koya yadda ake gano su.

3. Muhimmancin Hakuri: Kwararren dan kasuwa a wannan misalin ba zai yi gaggawar shiga a yankin farko ba. Zai yi hakuri ya jira farashi ya zo wurin da yafi inganci, koda kuwa zai dauki lokaci. Hakuri yana kawo riba a wannan harkar.

4. Neman Tabbaci (Confirmation): Don rage hadarin fada wa a tarko, yana da kyau ka koyi jiran ganin alamar tabbaci kafin ka shiga kasuwanci, musamman idan kana shiga a irin wadannan wurare masu hadari.

A takaice, wannan hoton yana cewa: "Kada ka yarda da abu na farko da ka gani. Yi zurfin tunani ka nemo ainihin tushen motsin kasuwa, domin a can ne ainihin damar take."

Wannan hoton ma wani muhimmin darasi ne a cikin wannan tsarin na "Smart Money Concepts". A nan, ana nuna mana nau'ikan yadda za mu iya shiga kasuwanci guda biyu, kowanne da alfanunsa da kuma hadarinsa.

Bari mu shiga ciki dalla-dalla.

Kashi Na Farko: Gabatarwa da Sharhin Sabuwar Kalma

Dukkan hotuna guda biyu (na sama da na kasa) suna nuna abu daya ne a yanayin kasuwa:

• Kasuwa tana tashi (Uptrend).

• Ta yi karyewar tsari (bos).

• Ta bar wuraren kudi/oda ($).

• Sai ta fara juyowa kasa don ta kwashe wadannan ododin.

Amma anan, an kawo mana wata sabuwar kalma mai matukar muhimmanci:

• ind (Inducement):

  • Ma'ana: "Rudi," "Janyo Hankali," ko "Tarko."

  • Sharhi: Inducement wani dan karamin wuri ne mafi rahusa (low) da kasuwa ta samar kusa da ainihin yankin bukata (Demand Zone). An samar da shi ne don ya rude 'yan kasuwa marasa hakuri. Yawancin 'yan kasuwa idan suka ga farashi ya dawo ya kwashe wannan wurin (ind), sai su dauka cewa kasuwar ta juya kuma lokacin saye ya yi. Amma a zahiri, manyan 'yan kasuwa sukan kwashe liquidity na inducement din nan kafin su kai ga ainihin yankin bukatarsu na gaske wanda yake can kasa. A takaice dai, Inducement wani tarko ne na liquidity.

Yanzu bari mu duba banbancin da ke tsakanin hoton sama da na kasa, wanda shine ainihin darasin.

Kashi Na Biyu: Bayanin Nau'ikan Shiga Kasuwanci Guda Biyu

Hoton yana nuna mana hanyoyi guda biyu na shiga kasuwanci bayan farashi ya kwashe Inducement ya shigo yankin bukata.

1. Tsari Na Farko (Na Sama): Shiga Kasuwanci Mai Hadari (Risk Entry)

A wannan tsarin, mai fatauci yana amfani da dukkan yankin bukata (Demand Zone) don shiga kasuwanci.

• Yadda Ake Yi:

  1. Bayan an gano babban yankin bukata (Demand Zone), sai a sanya umarnin saye (buy order) a farkon shigowar yankin.

  2. Sai a sanya kariyar asara (stop-loss) a karshen yankin.

• Alfanu (Advantage):

  • Ba a Rasa Dama: Da kyar ka rasa shiga kasuwanci, domin da zaran farashi ya tabo yankin, odarka za ta kama. Hanya ce ta "set and forget" (sanyawa ka manta).

• Hadari (Disadvantage):

  • Babban Stop-Loss: Domin yankin yana da fadi, dole ne stop-loss dinka ya zama babba. Wannan yana nufin idan kasuwancin ya gaza, asararka za ta fi yawa.

  • Karancin Riba: Ribar da za ka samu idan aka kwatanta da hadarin da ka dauka (Risk-to-Reward Ratio) tana da karanci.

2. Tsari Na Biyu (Na Kasa): Shiga Kasuwanci Tabbatacce (Refined/Confirmation Entry)

A wannan tsarin, mai fatauci ba zai yi amfani da dukkan babban yankin ba. Zai kara tace wurin shigarsa ya zama karami kuma tabbatacce.

• Yadda Ake Yi:

  1. Bayan an gano babban yankin bukata a jadawalin minti 15 (misali), sai a sauka zuwa karamin jadawali kamar na minti 1 (1-min chart).

  2. A cikin wancan babban yankin, sai a nemo wani karamin yankin bukata na musamman (a refined zone) wanda shima ya haddasa wata karyewar tsari a karamin jadawalin.

  3. Sai a sanya umarnin saye (buy order) da kuma stop-loss a wannan karamin yankin da aka tace.

• Alfanu (Advantage):

  • Karamin Stop-Loss: Stop-loss dinka zai zama karami sosai, wanda ke nufin hadarin da ka dauka ya ragu matuka.

  • Riba Mai Yawa: Ribar da za ka iya samu idan aka kwatanta da karamin hadarin da ka dauka (Risk-to-Reward Ratio) tana da yawa sosai. Za ka iya samun riba ninki 10 ko 20 na kudin da ka yi kasada da shi.

• Hadari (Disadvantage):

  • Ana Iya Rasa Dama: Wani lokacin, farashi zai iya tabo babban yankin bukatan ya juya ba tare da ya kai ga karamin yankin da ka tace ba. Idan haka ta faru, za ka rasa damar shiga wannan kasuwancin.

Kammalawa: Wanne Ya Fi Kyau?

Babu wanda za a ce shine "mafi kyau" a tsakaninsu, ya danganta da irin dan kasuwan da kai ne.

• Risk Entry (Na Sama): Ya fi dacewa da wanda ba ya son ya rasa dama kuma bai damu da daukar babban hadari ba.

• Refined Entry (Na Kasa): Ya fi dacewa da mai hakuri wanda ya fi son ya rage hadari kuma ya samu riba mai yawa, koda kuwa hakan zai sa ya rasa wasu damammaki.

Shawara a gare ka a matsayinka na dan koyo: Zai fi kyau ka fara da fahimta da kuma gwada Risk Entry. Idan ka saba da tsarin kuma ka fara gane yadda kasuwar ke motsi, sai ka fara koyon yadda ake tace wurin shiga zuwa Refined Entry. Yana bukatar kwarewa da yawan lura.

wannan hoto na gaba ya kawo wata dabara mai matukar amfani da ake kira "Asian Range Liquidity." Wannan dabarar ta daban ce domin tana mai da hankali ne kan wani takamaiman lokaci na kasuwanci (Lokacin Kasuwancin Asiya) kuma tana nuna mana yanayin kasuwa na faduwa (Bearish), wanda shine kishiyar misalan da muka gani a baya.

Bari mu fassara shi dalla-dalla kamar yadda muka saba.

## Sharhin Kalmomi da Sababbin Manufofi

Ga bayanin kowace kalma da kuma sababbin ra'ayoyin da wannan hoton ya kunsa:

• Asian Range Liquidity: Wannan shine sunan dabarar.

  • Ma'ana: "Kudi/Oda na Yankin Kasuwancin Asiya."

  • Sharhi: Lokacin kasuwancin nahiyar Asiya (Asian Session) yakan kasance babu hada-hada sosai, wanda hakan yasa farashi ya kasance yana tafiya a wuri guda (ranging). Wannan yana haifar da taruwar stop-loss na 'yan kasuwa a sama da kuma kasan wannan yankin. Wannan tarin stop-loss din shine ake kira "Asian Range Liquidity," kuma shine abin da manyan 'yan kasuwa suke hari.

• Pro Orderflow Supply Zone:

  • Ma'ana: "Yankin Samarwa na Kwararru."

  • Sharhi: Wannan shine kishiyar Demand Zone. Supply Zone wani kebantaccen wuri ne inda ake sa ran manyan masu sayarwa suna jira da ododinsu. Yawanci, wannan yankin shi ne ya haddasa faduwar farashi mai karfi wanda ya kai ga karyewar tsari (bos) zuwa kasa.

• bos (Break of Structure):

  • Muhimmin Banbanci: A misalan da suka gabata na kasuwa mai tashi (Bullish), BOS yana nufin karyewar tsohon wuri mafi tsada (high). Amma a nan, a kasuwa mai faduwa (Bearish), BOS yana nufin karyewar tsohon wuri mafi rahusa (low). Wannan yana tabbatar mana cewa kasuwar tana cikin yanayin faduwa.

• Ranging Price Action:

  • Ma'ana: "Motsin Farashi a Wuri Guda." Wannan daidai yake da Consolidation da muka gani a baya. Yana nufin kasuwar na tafiya a gefe ba tare da tana tashi ko faduwa ba.

• Asian High Liquidity & Asian Low Liquidity:

  • Ma'ana: "Kudi/Oda na saman yankin Asiya" da "Kudi/Oda na kasan yankin Asiya."

  • Sharhi: A lokacin da kasuwa ke rangi a lokacin Asiya, masu sayarwa suna sanya stop-loss dinsu a sama (Asian High), yayin da masu saye suke sanya nasu a kasa (Asian Low).

• Price mitigates the Supply zone and swept the Asian High Liquidity:

  • Ma'ana: "Farashi ya daidaita yankin samarwa kuma ya kwashe kudin/oda na saman yankin Asiya."

  • Sharhi: Wannan shine ainihin aikin. "Mitigate" yana nufin farashi ya koma wancan yankin na Supply don cike manyan ododin sayarwa da aka bari a baya. Sannan "swept" yana nufin ya kwashe stop-loss na wadanda suka sayar a lokacin rangi din.

• Bearish Continuation:

  • Ma'ana: "Ci gaban Faduwa." Wannan shine abin da ake sa ran zai faru a karshe. Bayan an yi wannan yaudarar, ana sa ran kasuwar zata ci gaba da ainihin tafiyarta ta faduwa.

## Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Wannan Tsarin Yake Aiki

Wannan dabarar tana aiki ne a matakai kamar haka:

1. Gano Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, an gano cewa kasuwar tana cikin yanayin faduwa (Bearish), wanda aka tabbatar da shi ta hanyar karyewar wuri mafi rahusa na baya (bos). Wannan karyewar ta samar da wani muhimmin wuri a sama da ake kira Supply Zone.

2. Kasuwar Asiya (The Range): Sai kasuwa ta shiga lokacin kasuwancin Asiya, inda ta fara tafiya a wuri guda (Ranging Price Action). A wannan lokacin, tana "gina liquidity" ne kawai a sama da kasan wannan yankin.

3. Yaudara (The Manipulation): Bayan lokacin kasuwancin Asiya ya kare (yawanci a farkon lokacin London), sai farashi ya yi wani tashi na bazata zuwa sama. Wannan tashin tarko ne. Manufarsa ita ce ya "kwashe" stop-loss na wadanda suka sayar a lokacin rangi din (swept the Asian High Liquidity).

4. Shiga Kasuwanci (The Entry): Wannan tashin na yaudara yana kai farashin ne daidai cikin wancan Supply Zone da aka zana tun farko. A nan ne manyan 'yan kasuwa suke da manyan ododin sayarwa. Da zaran farashi ya shiga wannan yankin (mitigates the zone), wannan shine wuri mafi dacewa da za a shiga kasuwanci a sayar (Sell).

5. Ainihin Motsi (The Real Move): Bayan an cike manyan ododin sayarwa, sai farashi ya juya da karfi ya fara faduwa kasa. Zai ci gaba da faduwarsa (Bearish Continuation), kuma galibi wurinsa na farko da zai dosa shine kasan yankin Asiya don ya kwashe Asian Low Liquidity.

## Ka'idojin Amfani da Wannan Dabara

Idan kana son amfani da wannan dabarar, ga matakan da za ka bi:

1. Tabbatar da Yanayin Kasuwa: Da farko, tabbatar kasuwa tana faduwa (Bearish Trend). Nemo BOS zuwa kasa.

2. Zana Yankin Samarwa: Gano kuma ka zana Supply Zone din da ya haddasa wancan karyewar (BOS).

3. Jira Lokacin Asiya: Yi hakuri har sai lokacin kasuwancin Asiya ya zo kuma ya samar da yankin tafiya a wuri guda (range). Zana layi a saman yankin da kuma kasansa.

4. Jira Yaudara: Kada ka yi gaggawar sayarwa. Jira farashi ya yi wancan tashin na yaudara zuwa sama don ya kwashe Asian High Liquidity.

5. Shiga Kasuwanci: Shiga sayarwa (Sell) da zaran farashi ya shiga cikin Supply Zone da ka zana.

6. Sanya Stop-Loss: Sanya stop-loss dinka 'yan pips kadan a saman Supply Zone dinka.

7. Sanya Wurin Cin Riba: Wuri na farko da ya kamata ka sa ka ci riba shine a Asian Low Liquidity.

Wannan dabara tana da karfi sosai idan aka fahimce ta, domin tana nuna yadda ake amfani da lokaci da kuma liquidity don samun damar shiga kasuwanci mai inganci.

Wannan hoton, "Liquidity Concepts," ya zo ne don ya hada mana dukkan darussan da muka gani a baya wuri guda. Yana nuna mana yadda "Liquidity" take aiki a matsayin man fetur na tura kasuwa da kuma wurin da kasuwar ke hari (target).

Bari mu shiga cikin bayanin dalla-dalla.

Kashi Na Farko: Sharhin Kalmomi da Sababbin Manufofi

Yawancin kalmomin da ke nan mun riga mun gan su, amma akwai wasu 'yan sababbi da kuma wasu da aka kara wa karfi:

• Liquidity Concepts:

  • Ma'ana: "Manufofi ko Ra'ayoyi a kan Liquidity."

  • Sharhi: Hoton na nufin ya koya mana cewa kasuwa tana motsi ne daga wani yanki na liquidity zuwa wani. Liquidity shine komai a wannan dabarar.

• Swing BOS (Break of Structure):

  • Ma'ana: "Babbar Karyewar Tsari."

  • Sharhi: Wannan ya fi karfin BOS na yau da kullum. Swing BOS yana nufin an karyar da wani muhimmin wuri mafi tsada (a major high) wanda ya tabbatar da cewa yanayin kasuwar ya canza zuwa tashi (Uptrend) na dogon lokaci. Alama ce mai matukar karfi.

• Pro Orderflow Demand:

  • Ma'ana: "Babban Yankin Bukata."

  • Sharhi: Wannan shine yankin bukata mafi inganci kuma mafi karfi wanda ya haddasa wancan Swing BOS. Wannan wurin yana daidai da Extreme Demand Zone da muka gani a baya. Shine tushen motsin kasuwa.

• Liquidity build-up:

  • Ma'ana: "Taruwar Liquidity."

  • Sharhi: A lokacin da kasuwa ke dan juyowa baya (pullback), tana yin wasu 'yan kananan tsaunuka da kwaruruka. A karkashin wadannan kwarurukan, ana tara stop-loss na masu saye. Wannan shine taruwar liquidity da ake nufi.

• Liquidity to Target for longs:

  • Ma'ana: "Liquidity da Ake Hari a Matsayin Wurin Cin Riba."

  • Sharhi: Wannan shine babban darasin da ke nan. Kamar yadda ake da liquidity a kasa, haka nan ake da shi a sama. Liquidity da ke saman tsofaffin tsaunukan nan (highs) shine wurin da masu sayarwa suka sanya stop-loss dinsu. Ga masu saye (longs), wannan wurin shine ya zama wurin da suke hari domin su ci ribar su. Alamar maganadisu (magnet) da ke janyo kudi na nuna yadda farashi yake sha'awar zuwa wannan wurin.

Kashi Na Biyu: Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Tsarin Yake Aiki

Wannan hoton yana nuna cikakken tsarin motsin kasuwa kamar haka:

1. Kafa Tushe (Establishing the Trend): Kasuwa ta fara da wani tashi mai karfi wanda ya haifar da Swing BOS. Wannan ya tabbatar da cewa masu saye ne ke da iko. Wannan tashin ya samo asali ne daga Pro Orderflow Demand zone.

2. Juyowa da Tara Liquidity (The Pullback & Build-up): Bayan wannan babban tashin, sai kasuwa ta fara juyowa baya a hankali. Yayin da take wannan juyowar, tana barin wasu wurare a kasa inda ake tara Liquidity ($). Haka nan kuma, tana barin wasu wurare a sama inda nan ma ake tara wani nau'in liquidity na daban.

3. Shan Man Fetur (Fueling the Move): Kafin kasuwar ta ci gaba da ainihin tashinta, sai ta yi wata faduwa ta karshe zuwa kasa. Manufar wannan faduwar shine ta "kwashe" dukkan Liquidity build-up ($) da ke kasa. Sannan ta shigo cikin wancan babban yankin bukata na Pro Orderflow Demand (wanda aka kewaye da da'irar farko). Wannan aikin yana ba manyan 'yan kasuwa damar cike manyan ododinsu na saye a farashi mai sauki.

4. Tashi da Ci gaba (The Continuation): Bayan an kwashe liquidity kuma an cike oda, kasuwar yanzu tana da isasshen "man fetur" don tashi sama. Sai ta tashi da karfi, ta sake yin wani karamin bos. Tana iya dan juyowa kadan zuwa wani karamin yankin bukata (wanda aka kewaye da da'irar biyu) don ba da wata damar shiga, kafin ta ci gaba da tashinta.

5. Kaiwa ga Harin (Reaching the Target): Yanzu da kasuwar ke tashi, tana da wuri guda da take hari: Liquidity to Target for longs. Wannan shine liquidity da ke saman tsofaffin tsaunukan da aka bari a baya. Farashin zai ci gaba da tashi har sai ya kwashe wannan liquidityn, kamar yadda maganadisu ke jan karfe. Da zarar ya kai nan, an kammala motsin.

Kashi Na Uku: Babban Darasin da ke Cikin Hoton

Babban darasin da wannan hoton yake son mu koya shine, Liquidity yana da ayyuka guda biyu:

1. Man Fetur (Fuel): Ana amfani da liquidity da ke kasa (kamar Inducement da Liquidity build-up) a matsayin mai don tura farashi zuwa sama. Dole ne a kwashe shi kafin ainihin motsi ya faru.

2. Wurin Hari (Target/Destination): Ana amfani da liquidity da ke sama (kamar tsofaffin highs) a matsayin wurin da farashi zai je ya tsaya. Shine wurin da ake sa ran za a ci riba.

Don haka, a duk lokacin da ka bude jadawali, ka tambayi kanka: "Ina liquidity yake a kasa da za a iya amfani da shi a matsayin mai?" sannan "Ina liquidity yake a sama da za a iya kai wa hari?" Idan ka fara ganin kasuwa ta wannan mahangar, zai fi maka sauki ka fahimci inda za ta dosa.

Wannan hoton ya kawo mana wani muhimmin darasi wanda zai kara inganta yadda muke gane wuraren shiga kasuwanci. A nan, an hada dabarar da muka koya ta Supply Zone da wani sabon kayan aiki da ake kira Fibonacci.

Wannan hadin yana ba da shiga kasuwanci mai matukar inganci. Bari in yi maka bayani dalla-dalla.

Kashi Na Farko: Gabatarwa ga Kayan Aikin Fibonacci

Kafin mu shiga cikin hoton, bari na fara yi maka bayanin menene Fibonacci Tool (Mizanin Fibonacci).

Fibonacci Retracement Tool wani kayan aiki ne da ake amfani da shi a jadawali don auna yadda farashi zai iya juyowa baya (pullback) bayan ya yi wani babban motsi. Yana da wasu muhimman matakai (levels) da aka zana a kaso. A wannan hoton, matakai mafi muhimmanci da aka nuna sune 0.61, 0.7, da 0.8.

Yawancin 'yan kasuwa sun dauki yankin da ke tsakanin 0.618 zuwa 0.786 (ko 0.8) a matsayin "Yanki na Zinariya" (Golden Zone). Wato, idan farashi ya dawo ya shiga wannan yankin, akwai yiwuwa mai karfi ya juya ya ci gaba da tafiyarsa ta asali.

Kashi Na Biyu: Sharhin Kalmomi da Manufofi a Cikin Hoton

Ga bayanin abubuwan da ke cikin hoton:

• Supply Zone + Fibonacci: Wannan shine sunan dabarar, wato "Hada Yankin Samarwa da Mizanin Fibonacci."

• Break of structure to the downside (bos): Kamar yadda muka koya a baya, wannan shine karyewar wuri mafi rahusa na baya, wanda ke tabbatar da cewa kasuwa tana cikin yanayin faduwa (Bearish Trend).

• Last up candle that caused the break:

  • Ma'ana: "Kyandir na karshe na tashi wanda ya haddasa karyewar."

  • Sharhi: Wannan wata hanya ce mai sauki kuma mai inganci ta gano Supply Zone. Idan ka ga wata faduwa mai karfi da ta karya tsari (bos), sai ka duba kyandir na kore (na tashi) na karshe kafin wannan faduwar. Wannan kyandir din da kewaye shine yankin samarwarka (Supply Zone).

• Used the fibonacci tool for confirmation of entry:

  • Ma'ana: "An yi amfani da mizanin fibonacci don tabbatar da shiga."

  • Sharhi: Wannan yana nuna cewa ba a dogara da Supply Zone kadai ba. An kara da Fibonacci a matsayin wani abu da zai kara tabbatar da cewa lissafin daidai ne.

• Price mitigated this supply zone and created a bearish trend in Lower timeframe:

  • Ma'ana: "Farashi ya daidaita wannan yankin samarwa kuma ya samar da yanayin faduwa a karamin jadawali."

  • Sharhi: Wannan wata dabara ce ta kwararru. Bayan farashi ya dawo ya shiga babban Supply Zone dinka (misali a jadawalin minti 15), sai ka koma karamin jadawali (kamar na minti 1). Idan a can ma ka ga farashin ya fara karye tsari zuwa kasa, wannan wata babbar alama ce ta tabbatar da cewa farashin zai fadi da gaske.

• Price continues to go to the downside: Wannan shine sakamakon da ake sa rai—farashi ya ci gaba da faduwa.

• Da'irar da ke gefe (Inset Circle): Wannan hoton da ke cikin da'irar yana nuna takaitaccen misalin abin da ya faru: Kasuwa tana faduwa (bos), sai ta dawo baya zuwa yankin Fibonacci (0.61-0.8), sannan ta sake ci gaba da faduwa.

Kashi Na Uku: Cikakken Bayanin Yadda Tsarin Yake Aiki

Ga yadda wannan dabarar take aiki mataki-mataki:

1. Gano Yanayin Kasuwa da Yankin Samarwa: Da farko, ka tabbatar kasuwa tana cikin yanayin faduwa (Bearish Trend) ta hanyar ganin BOS zuwa kasa. Sannan ka gano Supply Zone ta hanyar zaben wancan "kyandir na kore na karshe kafin faduwar."

2. Zana Mizanin Fibonacci: Bayan kasuwa ta yi wani sabon wuri mafi rahusa (new low) sai ta fara juyowa sama. A wannan lokacin, sai ka jawo Fibonacci tool dinka daga saman da faduwar ta fara (swing high) zuwa kasan da ta tsaya (swing low).

3. Nemo Haduwar Wurare (Confluence): Yanzu abin da kake nema shine haduwar dalilai. Shin Supply Zone da ka zana ya yi daidai da "Yanki na Zinariya" na Fibonacci (tsakanin 0.61 zuwa 0.8)? Idan yankunan biyu sun hadu wuri guda, wannan yana ba ka wani wuri mai matukar karfi da ake sa ran farashi ba zai wuce ba.

4. Jiran Shiga Kasuwanci: Sai ka yi hakuri ka jira farashi ya dawo ya shigo wannan yankin da ka hade (confluence zone). Da zaran ya shigo, za ka iya shiga ka sayar (Sell). Don karin tabbaci, za ka iya bin waccan dabarar ta komawa karamin jadawali ka nemi karyewar tsari a can kafin ka shiga.

5. Sakamako: Kamar yadda hoton ya nuna, da zaran farashi ya taba wannan yankin mai karfi, sai ya juya kuma ya ci gaba da faduwarsa ta asali.

Babban Darasi

Babban darasin da ke nan shine amfani da "Confluence" wato "Haduwar Dalilai." A harkar fatauci, idan kana da dalili guda daya na shiga kasuwanci, yana da kyau. Amma idan kana da dalilai guda biyu ko uku wadanda duk suke nuna abu daya, damarka ta samun nasara tana karuwa sosai.

A wannan misalin, dalilan sune:

1. Kasuwa tana faduwa (Bearish Trend).

2. Farashi ya shigo Supply Zone.

3. Farashi ya shigo yankin zinariya na Fibonacci.

Wadannan dalilai guda uku sun hadu wuri guda, wanda ya ba da sigina mai karfi na sayarwa.

Wannan hoton, "CHOCH ENTRY MODEL," yana daya daga cikin mafi muhimmanci a wannan jerin darussan. Yana koya mana dalla-dalla yadda za mu gane lokacin da kasuwa ke shirin juyawa daga tashi zuwa faduwa, da kuma yadda za mu samu shiga kasuwanci mai inganci ta amfani da wannan alamar.

Wannan dabara ce ta kwararru, amma zan fassara ta a hanya mafi sauki da za ka gane.

Kashi Na Farko: Sharhin Kalmomi da Ratayoyi

Da farko, bari mu fassara wasu gajartattun kalmomi (acronyms) da ke cikin hoton:

• HH (Higher High): Wuri mafi tsada da ya fi na baya.

• HL (Higher Low): Wuri mafi rahusa amma wanda ya fi na baya.

• LL (Lower Low): Wuri mafi rahusa da ya gaza na baya.

• LH (Lower High): Wuri mafi tsada amma wanda ya gaza na baya.

• POI (Point of Interest): Wuri mai muhimmanci. A wannan yanayin, yana nufin Supply Zone.

• LTF (Lower Time Frame): Karamin Jadawali (misali, jadawalin minti 1 idan babban naka na minti 15 ne).

• CHOCH (Change of Character): Canjin Hali. Alama ta farko ta yiwuwar juyawar kasuwa.

• LQ Sweep: Kwashewar Liquidity.

Kashi Na Biyu: Yadda Juyawar Kasuwar Take Aiki

Hoton yana nuna yadda kasuwa ke nuna alamun juyawa daga tashi (uptrend) zuwa faduwa (downtrend).

1. Yanayin Tashi Mai Raushewa: A farkon hoton, kasuwa tana cikin yanayin tashi, tana samar da HH da HL.

2. Alamar Farko ta Gajiya: Sai kasuwa ta kasa samar da wani sabon HH. Ta tashi amma bai kai karfin na baya ba. Hoton ya kira wannan da "Weak low -> Fail to create HH" (Rausashshen wuri -> Gagalawa wajen samar da HH). Wannan ita ce alama ta farko da ke nuna cewa masu saye sun fara gajiya.

3. Babban Canjin Hali (The Major CHOCH): Bayan kasuwar ta gaza yin sabon HH, sai ta fado da karfi ta karya wancan wurin mafi rahusa na karshe (HL). Wannan karyewar ita ce BABBAN CHOCH din da muke nema. Tana nuna mana cewa yanayin kasuwar ya canza daga tashi zuwa faduwa. Yanzu an samar da LL.

4. Tabbatar da Yanayin Faduwa: Bayan wannan faduwar, kasuwa za ta dan koma sama, amma ba za ta kai ga tsohon HH ba. Za ta samar da LH. A wannan lokacin, an tabbatar da sabon yanayin faduwa, domin yanzu muna da LH da LL.

Kashi Na Uku: Yadda Ake Shiga Kasuwanci (The Entry Model)

Yanzu da muka tabbatar kasuwa ta juya, ga yadda za mu shiga kasuwanci a wuri mafi inganci:

1. Gano Wuri Mai Muhimmanci (Identify the POI): Bayan an samu wancan babban CHOCH, sai ka gano POI (wato Supply Zone) wanda ya haddasa wannan faduwar. Yawanci shine yankin da ke kusa da wancan LH din da aka samar.

2. Jira Farashi ya Dawo: Sai ka yi hakuri ka jira farashi ya dawo sama ya shigo cikin wannan POI da ka zana. A lokacin da yake dawowa, zai iya kwashe wasu 'yan kananan liquidity da ke ciki (LQ Sweep).

3. Sauka zuwa Karamin Jadawali (Drop to LTF): Da zaran farashi ya shigo cikin POI dinka a babban jadawalinka (misali minti 15), nan da nan ka koma karamin jadawali (misali minti 1).

4. Neman Tabbaci na Karshe (The Final Confirmation): A kan karamin jadawalin nan (LTF), farashin zai yi kama da yana cikin 'dan karamin yanayin tashi. Kada ka yi gaggawar shiga. Abin da za ka jira shine ka ga wani SABON CHOCH ya faru a kan wannan karamin jadawalin. Wato, ka jira wannan dan karamin yanayin tashin ya karye.

5. Shiga Kasuwanci: Da zaran ka ga CHOCH ya faru a LTF a cikin POI dinka na babban jadawali, wannan ita ce alama mafi karfi da za ka iya samu. Nan da nan sai ka shiga kasuwanci ka sayar (SELL). Ka sanya stop-loss dinka a dan saman POI din.

6. Sakamako: Kamar yadda hoton ya nuna a cikin babban akwatin nan, bayan an samu wannan cikakken tabbacin, sai farashi ya fadi kasa da karfi sosai.

Babban Darasi

Babban darasin da ke cikin wannan hoton shine amfani da tabbaci a kan tabbaci. Yana hana ka fada wa tarko da shiga kasuwanci da wuri. Tsarin shine:

1. Alama a Babban Jadawali: Ka ga alamar juyawar kasuwa a babban jadawalinka (Major CHOCH).

2. Gano Wuri Mai Kyau: Ka gano ainihin wurin da ya haddasa wannan juyawar (POI).

3. Alama a Karamin Jadawali: Ka jira ka ga wata sabuwar alamar juyawa a karamin jadawalinka a daidai cikin wancan wurin mai kyau (LTF CHOCH).

Wannan hanya tana bukatar hakuri sosai, amma tana daya daga cikin hanyoyi mafi inganci na shiga kasuwanci a lokacin da kasuwa ke juyawa.

Insha Allahu, zan yi maka bayani dalla-dalla, mataki-mataki, a yadda ko wanda bai taba jin wannan karatun ba zai gane. Wannan hoton yana nuna mana wata hanya ce da manyan 'yan kasuwa (kamar bankuna da manyan kamfanoni) suke bi don su sayar da kadarorinsu (kamar crypto, hannun jari, ko forex) a hankali ba tare da farashin ya fadi warwas ba. Wannan tsarin ana kiransa "Wyckoff's Distribution Phase".

Ma'anar "Distribution" a nan shi ne "Rarrabawa" ko "Sayarwa". A wannan lokacin ne "smart money" (masu basirar kuɗi) suke sayar da abin da suka saya a lokacin da farashi yake ƙasa (wato a lokacin "Accumulation" ko "Taruwa"), suna sayar wa da sauran jama'a waɗanda suke tunanin farashin zai ci gaba da tashi.

Ga bayanin kowane bangare na hoton dalla-dalla:

Ma'anar Muhimman Kalmomi (Abbreviations)

Kafin mu shiga bayanin matakan (Phases), ga ma'anar waɗannan gajartattun kalmomi da ka gani a hoton:

• PSY (Preliminary Supply): Wannan ita ce alamar farko da ke nuna cewa masu saye sun fara gajiya, kuma masu sayarwa sun fara shigowa kasuwa da karfi. Farashi zai tashi sama sosai amma da sauri ya dan fara juyowa.

• BC (Buying Climax): Wannan shi ne inda tashin farashi ya kai karshe. Anan ne masu saye suke ta tururuwar shiga kasuwa don gudun kada a bar su a baya, amma a lokaci guda, manyan 'yan kasuwa suna ta sayar musu da kayansu. Wannan wuri yakan zo da "volume" (yawan ciniki) mai yawa.

• AR (Automatic Reaction): Bayan an kai "Buying Climax," karfin masu saye ya kare, sai farashi ya fado da karfi. Wannan fad⃗uwar ita ce ake kira "Automatic Reaction." Wannan ne ke kafa iyakar ƙasa ta wurin da kasuwar za ta fara ciniki na wani lokaci (wato "Support Line").

• ST (Secondary Test): Bayan faduwar AR, kasuwa za ta sake komawa ta gwada kusa da inda BC ya faru. Wannan gwajin ana yi ne don a ga ko har yanzu akwai masu saye da karfi. Yawanci, yawan ciniki (volume) a nan ya fi na BC kadan.

• SOW (Sign of Weakness): Wannan "Alama ce ta Rauni." Yana faruwa ne lokacin da farashi ya fasa layin ƙasa (Support Line) na dan lokaci. Hakan na nuna cewa masu sayarwa sun fi karfin masu saye a kasuwar.

• UT (Upthrust): Wannan kamar tarko ne. Farashi zai tashi sama ya fasa layin sama (Resistance Line) da gangan, don yaudarar 'yan kasuwa cewa kasuwa za ta ci gaba da tashi. Amma da sauri zai komo ƙasa ya dawo cikin yankin cinikin.

• UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution): Wannan shi ne mataki na ƙarshe na tarko. Ya fi na UT karfi kuma yana faruwa ne a "Phase C." Farashi zai tashi sama sosai fiye da duk wuraren da suka wuce, don ya kwashe "stop loss" na masu sayarwa kuma ya jawo hankalin masu saye na ƙarshe, kafin farashin ya fado ƙasa gaba daya.

• LPSY (Last Point of Supply): Wannan shi ne "Wurin Sayarwa na Karshe." Bayan kasuwa ta nuna rauni (kamar bayan UTAD ko SOW), za ta dan yi kokarin tashi sama kadan, amma ba za ta iya kaiwa wuraren da ta kai a baya ba. Wannan shi ne damar karshe ga manyan 'yan kasuwa su sayar da sauran abin da ya rage a hannunsu kafin farashi ya rushe.

Bayanin Mataki-mataki (Phases A-E)

Yanzu, bari mu bi matakan (Phases) ɗaya bayan ɗaya kamar yadda aka nuna a hoton:

Phase A: An Dakatar da Tashin da Ake Yi (Stopping the Prior Uptrend)

Wannan shi ne matakin farko inda ake dakatar da tashin da farashin ke yi a baya.

• Abubuwan da ke faruwa: Ana samun PSY, wanda ke nuna alamar farko ta masu sayarwa. Sai kuma BC, inda tashin ya kai ƙarshe. Daga nan sai AR, inda farashi ya fado da karfi. Waɗannan abubuwa uku suna kafa iyakar sama (Resistance Line a wurin BC) da kuma iyakar ƙasa (Support Line a wurin AR) na yankin da za a rarraba kayan (Distribution). A wannan matakin, kasuwar ta daina tashi sama kuma ta shiga ciniki a tsakanin waɗannan layuka biyu.

Phase B: Gina Dalilin Sayarwa (Building a Cause)

A wannan matakin, manyan 'yan kasuwa suna sayar da kadarorinsu a hankali a cikin wannan yanki da aka kafa a Phase A.

• Abubuwan da ke faruwa: Za ka ga farashi yana ta sama da ƙasa tsakanin "Support" da "Resistance." Za a iya samun ST da yawa, wanda ke gwada layin sama, da kuma SOW, wanda ke nuna alamun rauni a layin ƙasa. Manufar wannan matakin ita ce a sayar da kaya da yawa ba tare da an karya farashin ba.

Phase C: Gwajin Karshe (The Test)

Wannan mataki ne mai matukar muhimmanci kuma mai yaudara. Anan ne ake tabbatar da cewa masu saye sun gama karfi.

• Abubuwan da ke faruwa: A nan ne za a iya samun UT ko UTAD. Wannan shi ne tarko na ƙarshe da "smart money" suke danawa. Farashi zai fasa layin sama da gangan don ya nuna wa mutane kamar zai ci gaba da tashi. Masu saye da yawa za su shiga a nan, amma a zahiri, nan ne manyan 'yan kasuwa suke sayar musu da kayansu na ƙarshe. Idan ka ga UTAD ya faru kuma farashi ya komo cikin yankin da sauri, alama ce mai karfi cewa kasuwa za ta fadi.

Phase D: Tabbatar da Juyawar Kasuwa (Confirmation of the Trend Down)

Bayan an gama gwajin a Phase C, wannan matakin shi ne ke tabbatar da cewa yanzu kasuwar za ta fara faduwa.

• Abubuwan da ke faruwa: Farashin zai fara faduwa a fili. Za ka ga LPSY da yawa, wanda ke nuna cewa duk wani ƙoƙari na tashi sama yana faskara. Bayan haka, za a sake samun SOW mai karfi, inda farashin zai fasa layin ƙasa (Support Line) da gaske kuma ya ci gaba da zama a ƙasansa. Wannan ya tabbatar da cewa masu sayarwa ne ke da iko a kasuwar.

Phase E: Faduwar Farashi (The Markdown)

Wannan shi ne mataki na ƙarshe. Bayan an tabbatar da rauni a Phase D, yanzu farashi zai fado ƙasa sosai.

• Abubuwan da ke faruwa: Farashin zai bar yankin cinikin gaba ɗaya kuma zai yi ta faduwa ba kakkautawa. Masu saye da suka shiga a lokacin Phase C da D yanzu sun shiga fargaba kuma suna ta sayarwa a asara, wanda hakan ke kara saurin faduwar farashin.

Ka'idoji da Zaka Bi Wajen Shiga Wannan Trading ɗin

A matsayinka na ɗan koyo, ga wasu shawarwari kan yadda za ka yi amfani da wannan ilimin:

1. Kada Ka Yi Gaggawa: Babban kuskuren da ake yi shi ne shiga kasuwa da wuri. Dole ne ka jira har sai ka ga alamomin sun cika. Kada ka yi "sell" (sayarwa) a Phase A ko B. Mafi akasarin lokuta, ana jiran Phase C ko D.

2. Neman Tabbaci a Phase C: Wuri mafi kyau na farko da za ka iya fara tunanin shiga "sell trade" shi ne bayan ka ga UTAD a Phase C. Idan farashi ya tashi sama ya fasa "resistance," sannan ya dawo ƙasa da sauri da karfi, wannan alama ce mai kyau. Za ka iya shiga "sell" idan ya dawo ƙasa da layin "resistance."

3. Shiga a Phase D: Wannan shi ne wuri mafi aminci don shiga kasuwa. Bayan farashi ya fasa layin "support" (SOW), sannan ya dawo ya gwada shi a matsayin sabon "resistance" (wato a LPSY), wannan wuri ne mai kyau ka shiga "sell." A nan, an riga an tabbatar da cewa kasuwa za ta fadi.

4. Kula da "Stop Loss": Ko yaushe ka sanya "stop loss" don kare kuɗinka. Idan ka shiga bayan UTAD, za ka iya sanya "stop loss" dinka a sama da kan UTAD din. Idan ka shiga a LPSY na Phase D, za ka iya sanya "stop loss" dinka a sama da wannan LPSY din.

5. Kula da "Volume" (Yawan Ciniki): Yawan ciniki na da matukar muhimmanci a wannan tsarin. A lokacin BC da UTAD, za ka ga "volume" ya yi yawa sosai. Amma a lokacin da kasuwa ke ƙoƙarin tashi a wuraren LPSY, za ka ga "volume" ya ragu, wanda ke nuna cewa babu karfin masu saye.

A taƙaice: Manufar wannan hoton ita ce ta koya maka yadda za ka gane lokacin da manyan 'yan kasuwa suke sayar da kayansu don kai ma ka guji siye a lokacin da bai dace ba, kuma idan kai ɗan kasuwar "sell" ne (kamar a forex), ka san lokacin da ya dace ka shiga ka ci riba a lokacin da farashi ke faduwa.

Wannan hoton yana bayani ne akan wani abu da ake kira "Currency Correlation" a turance, wato "Haɗin-gwiwar Kuɗaɗe" a harkar kasuwancin Forex. Ma'ana, yadda farashin wani kuɗi yake da alaƙa da na wani kuɗin. Idan ɗaya ya tashi, shin ɗayan ma zai tashi ko kuwa zai faɗi? Wannan shi ne abin da hoton yake ƙoƙarin koya mana.

Bari mu fara da fassara kowane abu da ke cikin hoton.

Mataki Na 1: Fassarar Alamomi da Kalmomin Cikin Hoton

Da farko, bari mu fahimci ma'anar kowace alama da kalma.

1. Currency Pairs (Nau'ikan Kuɗaɗe): Waɗannan su ne kamar EUR-USD, GBP-USD, USD-JPY, da sauransu.

   • Ma'anarsu: A kasuwancin Forex, ana siyan kuɗi ne biyu-biyu. Misali, EUR-USD na nufin kana kwatanta ƙarfin kuɗin Euro (EUR) da na Dalar Amurka (USD).

   • Kudin Asali (Base Currency): Shine kuɗin farko a hagu (kamar EUR a cikin EUR-USD).

   • Kudin Sayarwa (Quote Currency): Shine kuɗin na biyu a dama (kamar USD a cikin EUR-USD).

   • Idan farashin EUR-USD ya tashi, yana nufin Euro (EUR) ya fi Dala (USD) ƙarfi. Idan farashin ya faɗi, yana nufin Dala (USD) ya fi Euro (EUR) ƙarfi.

2. Legend (Ma'anar Kibiyoyi): Wannan shi ne mabudin fahimtar hoton gaba ɗaya.

   • ↑ (Kibiya Guda Daya Kore): Wannan na nufin "Pair is strengthening" wato kuɗin asali (base currency) yana samun ƙarfi akan kuɗin sayarwa (quote currency). Farashi yana tashi sama a hankali.

   • ↑↑ (Kibiyoyi Biyu Kore): Wannan na nufin "Pair is moving up strongly" wato farashin yana tashi sama sosai da ƙarfi.

   • ↓ (Kibiya Guda Daya Jaja): Wannan na nufin "Pair is weakening" wato kuɗin asali (base currency) yana rasa ƙarfi akan kuɗin sayarwa (quote currency). Farashi yana faɗuwa a hankali.

   • ↓↓ (Kibiyoyi Biyu Jajaye): Wannan na nufin "Pair is moving down strongly" wato farashin yana faɗuwa ƙasa sosai da ƙarfi.

Mataki Na 2: Yadda Zaka Karanta Kuma Ka Fahimci Tsarin

Yanzu da ka san ma'anar alamomin, bari mu haɗa su wuri guda don fahimtar saƙon da hoton yake bayarwa. Hoton yana amfani da wani tsari na "IDAN... KUMA... TO..."

Bari mu dauki misali na farko a jeren hagu:

"IF EUR-USD ↑ and USD-JPY ↑ then EUR-JPY ↑↑"

Wannan yana nufin:

• IDAN farashin EUR-USD yana tashi sama (↑), ma'ana Euro ya fi Dala ƙarfi.

• KUMA farashin USD-JPY shima yana tashi sama (↑), ma'ana Dala ya fi Yen na Japan ƙarfi.

• TO a wannan lokacin, farashin EUR-JPY zai tashi sama da ƙarfi sosai (↑↑).

Dalili: Ka yi tunaninsa a haka: Idan Euro ya doke Dala, kuma Dala ya doke Yen, to a hankalce za ka san cewa Euro zai doke Yen da ƙarfi sosai. Wannan kamar a gasar dambe ne.

Bari mu dauki wani misali mai ɗan bambanci, daga jere na uku a hagu:

"IF EUR-USD ↑ and AUD-USD ↓ then EUR-AUD ↑↑"

• IDAN farashin EUR-USD yana tashi sama (↑), ma'ana Euro ya fi Dala ƙarfi.

• KUMA farashin AUD-USD yana faɗuwa ƙasa (↓), ma'ana Dalar Australiya (AUD) ta yi rauni a gaban Dalar Amurka (USD).

• TO a wannan lokacin, farashin EUR-AUD zai tashi sama da ƙarfi sosai (↑↑).

Dalili: Idan Euro ya fi Dala ƙarfi, kuma Dalar Australiya ta gaza a gaban Dala, wannan yana nuna cewa akwai tazarar ƙarfi mai yawa tsakanin Euro da Dalar Australiya. Don haka, EUR-AUD zai tashi da gaske.

Duk sauran misalan da ke cikin hoton suna bin wannan tsarin ne. Wasu suna nuna alaƙa kai tsaye (positive correlation), wasu kuma suna nuna alaƙar da ba kai tsaye ba (inverse correlation).

Mataki Na 3: Muhimmanci da Amfanin Wannan Tsari a Trading

Wannan ilimin yana da matuƙar amfani ga ɗan kasuwa saboda dalilai kamar haka:

1. Tabbatar da Ciniki (Trade Confirmation): Idan kayi nazari (analysis) kuma ka ga kamar za ka sayi (BUY) EUR-JPY, za ka iya duba EUR-USD da USD-JPY. Idan suma suna nuna alamar tashi, wannan zai ƙara maka ƙarfin gwiwar shiga kasuwar.

2. Gudanar da Haɗari (Risk Management): Yana taimaka maka ka guji buɗe kasuwanni biyu da za su yi wa juna illa. Misali, idan ka san cewa EUR-USD da GBP-USD galibi tare suke tashi, ba zai zama dabara mai kyau ba ka sayi (BUY) ɗaya, sannan ka sayar (SELL) da ɗayan a lokaci guda, domin ribar ɗaya za ta iya zama faɗuwar ɗayan.

3. Samun Damar Ciniki (Finding Trading Opportunities): Idan ka lura cewa sharuddan farko biyu sun cika (misali, EUR-USD yana tashi kuma USD-JPY yana tashi), wannan kaɗai zai iya zama sigina a gare ka cewa akwai yiwuwar samun riba idan ka shiga kasuwar EUR-JPY.

Mataki Na 4: Ka'idojin da Ya Kamata Ka Bi Wajen Amfani da Wannan Tsari

A matsayinka na mai koyo, yana da mahimmanci ka bi waɗannan ƙa'idodin:

1. Kada Ka Dogara da Wannan Kaɗai: Wannan tsarin ba shi ne 100% tabbatacce ba. Yana ɗaya daga cikin kayan aiki ne kawai a cikin akwatin kayan aikinka na trading. Dole ne ka haɗa shi da wasu nau'ikan nazari kamar Technical Analysis (kamar amfani da trend lines, support/resistance, da indicators) da kuma Fundamental Analysis (kula da labaran tattalin arziki).

2. Alaƙar Tana Iya Canzawa: Wannan haɗin-gwiwar na iya canzawa. Wani lokaci labari mai ƙarfi (kamar sanarwar babban banki) zai iya sa wannan alaƙar ta karye na wani ɗan lokaci. Don haka, dole ne ka kasance a faɗake.

3. Yi Amfani da Wasu Manhajoji (Indicators): Ka haɗa wannan bayanin da wasu manhajoji kamar RSI, MACD, ko Moving Averages don samun ƙarin tabbaci kafin ka shiga kasuwa.

4. Fara da "Demo Account": Kafin ka fara amfani da kuɗinka na gaske, ka buɗe "demo account" (wanda ake gwaji da kuɗin wasa) ka gwada bin wannan tsarin. Ka lura da kanka yadda yake aiki a kasuwa ta ainihi.

5. Kula da Lokaci (Timeframe): Wannan alaƙar ta fi aiki a manyan lokuta kamar na awa 4 (4-hour) ko na yini ɗaya (daily). A ƙananan lokuta (kamar minti 1 ko 5), ana iya samun "surutu" (noise) da yawa a kasuwa wanda zai iya ɓatar da kai.

Kammalawa

A taƙaice, wannan hoton wata babbar darasi ce da ke nuna yadda kasuwannin kuɗaɗe suke da alaƙa da juna. Fahimtarsa zai ba ka damar ganin kasuwar ta wata sabuwar mahanga, ya taimaka maka wajen yanke shawara mai kyau, da kuma kare ka daga wasu haɗurran da ba lallai bane.

Ka ɗauke shi a matsayin taswira ce da ke nuna maka yadda garuruwa suke da alaƙa, amma har yanzu kai ne direban da zai tuƙa motar da hankali.